Trade up to the number 3 to get Anderson ????

[AROS]

I hear you and remember that as well but I think there is no way they are still not taking a close look at him due to talent and need alone.

 

[Rat]

That's the dream scenario.

Is there a team willing to give up multiple picks this year and a 1st next year for Will Levis?

Cause that's what it'd take to get Arizona to drop down past us.

I don't see that happening, but it's possible. I think every team behind us in the top 10 knows we're not drafting a QB, as much as Pete and John are pretending that's a big possibility. So if there's a trade up for Levis, it's probably happening behind us, not with Arizona.

They could be worried about the Colts taking Levis. I think he makes more sense for them than Richardson. Actually, starting to wonder if we need to worry about the Colts snatching Anderson right before us. It's gaining a lot of steam among their fan base.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

They could be worried about the Colts taking Levis. I think he makes more sense for them than Richardson. Actually, starting to wonder if we need to worry about the Colts snatching Anderson right before us. It's gaining a lot of steam among their fan base.

Richardson is definitely more risky than Levis, but his upside is also much higher.

Either way, IMO Anderson to the Cardinals is a lock unless someone offers them a crazy package to move up.......and again, if you're all in on Levis or Richardson and know the Cardinals are drafting Anderson and we're not taking a QB? Then why would you do that when you can give up less to drop in behind us if one or both those QB's are available?

 

[WarHawks]

Because the chances of all 4QB's hitting are low.

Two years ago, you had three QB's all go within the first three picks.

Trevor Lawrence
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance

Only the first name on the list has panned out so far.

Anthony Richardson is the Trey Lance of this draft. The least experienced of the four.

Will Levis has his own critiques.

Hendon Hooker has just as good a chance of panning out as anyone else in this draft. He's certainly further along than a guy like Richardson.

So I guess the hit rate on top picks is even lower than I thought, meaning if we're only going to have a 20-30% hit rate, then mitigate that risk by picking a qb lower. I guess I can see the logic in that.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

So I guess the hit rate on top picks is even lower than I thought, meaning if we're only going to have a 20-30% hit rate, then mitigate that risk by picking a qb lower. I guess I can see the logic in that.

It's about finding the greatest upside of value vs risk.

If your value/risk metrics for guys like Carter, Wilson or whoever your scouts and Schneider agree has a higher potential hit rate than QB's like Richardson or Levis? Then that's probably what you do right?

Conversely, going with one of the 2nd tier QB's later in the draft drastically evens out that upside vs risk ratio because you didn't overvalue them at such a can't afford to miss pick like #5.

Factor in need? And IMO it's a no brainer to pass on the QB position at #5. Again, especially if you like one of the 2nd tier QB's to develop in your system for a year or two.

 

[WarHawks]

Thanks. My thinking is evolving. Appreciate all the insight.

 

[rjdriver]

It's an informed opinion to have. It's a likely reality, considering the front office being fairly strict about off-field red flags from 2018 onward. They've been transparent about how they strictly want to look for mature, reliable players for the organization and how they've enormously shrunk their draft board since the McDowell incident.

Carter has pretty severely failed the "reliable" part. There could still be a chance for him, but the front office has become more predictable than they used to be in a few ways.

This is good post and I do agree that there is a supporting argument as to why we may not draft Jalen.

BUT

We all know there are always outliers. Three things.
- Throughout the VAST majority of 2022, Jalen Carter was universally thought of as one of two best players in the college football kingdom, especially considering he played in the NFL D league.
- He plays DT and, on paper, would fill what most would call the Seahawks biggest area of need.
- Despite what JS has said, there is post 2018 evidence that he is willing to take a player with some "ancillary issues". His character heavy drafting strategy just adds in a variable that moves a player down the board exclusive to their playing abilty. I'm referring to DK who should have been a first round pick. Hypothetically, if John had deemed Carter as the best player in the draft, then maybe he decides dropping to pick 5 is enough character collateral to justify the pick.

 

[CactusJack]

So I guess the hit rate on top picks is even lower than I thought, meaning if we're only going to have a 20-30% hit rate, then mitigate that risk by picking a qb lower. I guess I can see the logic in that.

It's only logical to take a QB, if you think you've found your guy. The guy.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Thanks. My thinking is evolving. Appreciate all the insight.

We're all just guessing dude. But seeing how John and Pete's thinking has evolved (and stumbled at times) with how they draft?

They seem to put a very heavy emphasis on value picks, while also a heavy emphasis on need.

There's certainly value in Richardson or Levis, but probably around pick 20, not pick 5. WAY too much risk, and not filling an immediate need either. Bad teams are the ones that continually overvalue these QB's, and get burned over and over.

 

[rjdriver]

Hendon Hooker has just as good a chance of panning out as anyone else in this draft. He's certainly further along than a guy like Richardson.

Let's be honest...

How many of us would immediately go out and buy our wives and girlfriends Hendon's jersey and feign ignorance?

I would.

 

[Rat]

We all know there are always outliers. Three things.
- Throughout the VAST majority of 2022, Jalen Carter was universally thought of as one of two best players in the college football kingdom, especially considering he played in NFL D league.

One of two best NFL defensive prospects in college football maybe, but not one of the two best players.

 

[rjdriver]

It's only logical to take a QB, if you think you've found your guy. The guy.

This.

What I mean is, some people who think JS is going to take a QB with pick 5 (or 3) act like he will take whomever is left of the big four. No way.

There is a chance he has ONE guy he is enamored with, but if that guy is already off the board (no one truly knows who the other three, or four, teams will take ) we are going defense.

Regardless, as a fan this is one of the coolest draft seasons I can remember. The fact that we get it after a playoff appearance without having had to endure a completely suck ass season is icing on the cake.

 

[WarHawks]

So what would you all think if they take Hooker at 20 instead of 37? Or maybe trade down a few spots to get him and grab and extra pick along the way? With so many teams needing qb's, it seems hard to imagine he'll still be there in the 2nd. Sorry if I'm hijacking this Anderson thread.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I hear you and remember that as well but I think there is no way they are still not taking a close look at him due to talent and need alone.

Yeah. If there's a player they may bend for, Carter's talent is the guy to make 'em bend.

 

[rjdriver]

So what would you all think if they take Hooker at 20 instead of 37? Or maybe trade down a few spots to get him and grab and extra pick along the way? With so many teams needing qb's, it seems hard to imagine he'll still be there in the 2nd. Sorry if I'm hijacking this Anderson thread.

I'd go from Bruce Banner to Lou Ferrigno if we took Hooker at 20. I'd come on .net and throw people around and create chaos for a short time.

Then.. the homerism blood would slowly start to seep back in.

Shortly after, I would wake up in a deserted warehouse with a headache as Bruce again and start formulating some oddball narrative on how we got the best QB on the draft.

 

[CactusJack]

So what would you all think if they take Hooker at 20 instead of 37? Or maybe trade down a few spots to get him and grab and extra pick along the way? With so many teams needing qb's, it seems hard to imagine he'll still be there in the 2nd. Sorry if I'm hijacking this Anderson thread.

Taking him at 20 would be a bit rich for me. They should have plenty of good options to choose from in that range.

He should still be available at 37. Mainly due to the ACL. Unless you think a team in front of you would grab him. I would stay put.

 

[WarHawks]

Fair enough.

 

[chrispy]

Why isn't anyone suggesting there's a possibility for AZ to take a QB at 3?

New Coach, GM and KM won't be healthy by beginning of season. There's plenty of reasons they'd want to pick their own guy. ...seems like it's just as likely as Seahawks at #5...???

 

[Rat]

Why isn't anyone suggesting there's a possibility for AZ to take a QB at 3?

New Coach, GM and KM won't be healthy by beginning of season. There's plenty of reasons they'd want to pick their own guy. ...seems like it's just as likely as Seahawks at #5...???

Have you looked at Kyler Murray's contract?

 

[RiverDog]

I hear you and remember that as well but I think there is no way they are still not taking a close look at him (Carter) due to talent and need alone.

Oh, there's no doubt that they're taking a close look at him and a number of other potential picks. I just don't think he'll be an option for us, a.k.a. "on our board" at #5 overall.

We'll have to keep an eye on how Carter's legal situation plays out. He's been charged with speeding and reckless driving, which is considered a criminal misdemeanor, and he's already had a very recent speeding violation of nearly 2x the speed limit, meaning that it's less likely they'll reduce the charge.