Who do you want to win between CAR & SF?

[Popeyejones]

Carolina's the 2 seed for a reason.

Because they're playing the NFC South and not the NFC West? Panthers had the same record, a worse point differential, and an easier schedule than the 9ers.

TBF I think the Panthers are a great team and just as likely to better than the 9ers as the 9ers are to be better than them, but I don't think their seed is a great reason to argue for why they're better.

 

[volsunghawk]

Carolina's the 2 seed for a reason.

Because they're playing the NFC South and not the NFC West? Panthers had the same record, a worse point differential, and an easier schedule than the 9ers.

TBF I think the Panthers are a great team and just as likely to better than the 9ers as the 9ers are to be better than them, but I don't think their seed is a great reason to argue for why they're better.

Good point, which is why I added all that other stuff in there, too. :mrgreen:

My posts aren't intended as bagging on the 49ers, but there seem to be a lot of people here who quickly dismiss the Panthers, and I honestly don't understand why. They think Newton will fold, but I watched the guy handle a hell of a lot of pressure in Auburn's 2010 title run - both on the field and off - and he never seemed to get rattled by it. On the other hand, we know Kaepernick can get rattled at the Clink. We've got data on SF in Seattle that we just don't have on Carolina.

The 2 seed comment was more intended to illustrate that Carolina is no paper tiger team. They were down to the Saints by 3 games at the first-quarter mark of the season and they still came back and took that division from a very good team.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ Ah gotcha. Yeah, DEFINITELY agreed that the Panthers are no paper tiger, err, panther.

 

[Marvin49]

Like most, I prefer to see the Niners lose. I don't think the Panthers are ready for the Clink due to their unfamiliarity and inexperience , and see this matchup as less risky than the Niners (although both are risky). Also, I don't even want the Niners to have a chance to win the Super Bowl. The sooner that ends the better.

That being said, I don't think it's going to be as close as some think. The score might be, but I anticipate the Panthers are going to struggle to score. I know Car won in SF earlier this year, but the Niners are much improved.

In that game:
1. Crabtree was out, the guy that really stretches the field.
2. Davis left early with a concussion
3. Aldon Smith only played 12 snaps after returning from treatment.

I think these variables add up to a lot more than the one point they lost by or the four points they lost by when including the HFA which is usually worth about three points.

I hate saying it, but with Steve Smith banged up, I see Riverboat Ron being out coached and the Niners prevailing 24-17

I hope I'm wrong.

I've been trying to convince myself that Carolina can win this game also... At the end of the day though, I just don't see it... Actually, this feels like a foregone conclusion... I will still watch and hope. I would MUCH rather see Carolina in the NFCCG, particularly after a slugfest they have to endure vs. the Niners. But yeah, I won't be holding my breath... The Niners are a better team top to bottom and they are on fire...

Carolina's front seven is flat out BETTER than San Francisco's front seven. It just is.

Carolina led the league in sacks this year.

The characteristics that give our offense fits? Carolina trumps SF in those things.

As for being "on fire," you do realize that Carolina's won 11 of its last 12 games, right? :|

uh. ok.

Its good, I'll give you that...but better? I don't buy that at all.

Niners have FOUR Pro Bowl LBs. One of them only started 9 games (played in 11 but two very sparingly) and had 8.5 sacks and has 42 sacks in 43 games. If you've watched a game recently you'd see the guy is better than ever. They have the best ILB tandem in the NFL. Luke is good, I'll give him that, but right now I'd take Bowman. Brooks just made his first Pro Bowl. Justin Smith is the best 3-4 DE in the NFL not named Watt. McDonald is one of the most underrated DEs in the NFL and Dorsey has been very good.

They played essentially 7 games (5 out, 2 limited) without Aldon and since week 4 no team has allowed fewer points per game. Nobody. The front 7 is so good that they very often leave them alone with no help and play nickel all game long against the better passing teams in the league. When teams run against that front (like the Packers just tried to do with Lacy) they gain some yards but are unable to really take advantage of the alignment.

Look..the Panthers front 7 is really, really good. AS good as the 49ers? Maybe. CLEARLY better as you are stating? No.

 

[volsunghawk]

Carolina allowed the 2nd fewest yards rushing in the league (better than SF). They tied for fewest rushing TDs allowed (also better than SF). They notched 60 sacks, tops in the league and 22(!) more than the 49ers managed.

Sorry, but that kind of stuff holds weight with me.

 

[Marvin49]

Carolina allowed the 2nd fewest yards rushing in the league (better than SF). They tied for fewest rushing TDs allowed (also better than SF). They notched 60 sacks, tops in the league and 22(!) more than the 49ers managed.

Sorry, but that kind of stuff holds weight with me.

Cool. I like to watch the games.

Niners also played without their best pass rusher for almost half the season.

 

[hawker84]

Carolina allowed the 2nd fewest yards rushing in the league (better than SF). They tied for fewest rushing TDs allowed (also better than SF). They notched 60 sacks, tops in the league and 22(!) more than the 49ers managed.

Sorry, but that kind of stuff holds weight with me.

That's all fine, but how'd their offense fair, more importantly how'd their offense fair against good defenses. More importantly than that even, how will their offense fair against a top defense with a gimpy Smith?

I hear what you're saying , but there are 3 phases to this game, and 2 out of the 3 phases IMO SF has the edge. Offense and ST's. the Defenses are dead even...

 

[13thMan]

Whatever... my whole point was that I would rather face Carolina. Mediocre offense. Mediocre secondary. Regardless how good their front seven is, they are not as complete a team as San Francisco, not as well coached and they don't have the playoff resume either.

Anybody who would actually prefer to face the Niners in the NFCCG should really be careful what they wish for IMO.

 

[volsunghawk]

Whatever... my whole point was that I would rather face Carolina. Mediocre offense. Mediocre secondary. Regardless how good their front seven is, they are not as complete a team as San Francisco, not as well coached and they don't have the playoff resume either.

Anybody who would actually prefer to face the Niners in the NFCCG should really be careful what they wish for IMO.

Mediocre offense? They averaged 2.5 points less per game than SF did.

Mediocre secondary? Maybe so, but their pass D ranked higher than SF's did in pretty much ALL categories. Fewer yards allowed. Fewer TDs allowed. More interceptions. Fewer net yards gained per attempt. More sacks. I'm not making this stuff up.

 

[13thMan]

The good news is... our little "argument" comes to a definitive conclusion on Sunday.

(Here's hoping your assessment, stats, etc. prevail over the eyeball test.)

 

[Popeyejones]

Maybe so, but their pass D ranked higher than SF's did in pretty much ALL categories.

Except for all the categories you left out like 1) completion % (for which the Panthers are one of the worst in the league), 2) passes defensed (Carolina fifth from the bottom), 3) 1st down %, 4) YPC, 5) opponents QB rating, and 6) big plays.

As for the five you did discuss:

Fewer yards allowed:

Yep, Panthers are 6th and 9ers are 7th in the NFL (9ers gave up 5.7 more passing yards a game)

Fewer TDs allowed:

Yep. Panthers are 4th and 9ers are 5th in the NFL.

Fewer net yards gained per attempt.

Nope. Panthers gave up 6.09 yards an attempt and 9ers gave up 6.04 yards an attempt. More than happy to call that a tie, but a point for the Panthers I don't see.

More interceptions:

Yep, Panthers had 20 and the 9ers had 18.

More sacks:

Yep, Panthers definitely have the strong edge here, although that probably supports your argument about their front 7 more than it does your argument about their secondary.


In any case, the Panthers are really good. We agree on that.

 

[volsunghawk]

Maybe so, but their pass D ranked higher than SF's did in pretty much ALL categories.

Except for all the categories you left out like 1) completion % (for which the Panthers are one of the worst in the league), 2) passes defensed (Carolina fifth from the bottom), 3) 1st down %, 4) YPC, 5) opponents QB rating, and 6) big plays.

As for the five you did discuss:

Fewer yards allowed:

Yep, Panthers are 6th and 9ers are 7th in the NFL (9ers gave up 5.7 more passing yards a game)

Fewer TDs allowed:

Yep. Panthers are 4th and 9ers are 5th in the NFL.

Fewer net yards gained per attempt.

Nope. Panthers gave up 6.09 yards an attempt and 9ers gave up 6.04 yards an attempt. More than happy to call that a tie, but a point for the Panthers I don't see.

More interceptions:

Yep, Panthers had 20 and the 9ers had 18.

More sacks:

Yep, Panthers definitely have the strong edge here, although that probably supports your argument about their front 7 more than it does your argument about their secondary.


In any case, the Panthers are really good. We agree on that.

Thing is, though, I'm not making an argument for the Panthers' secondary. I'm challenging the idea that it is any more "mediocre" than the SF secondary. In all honesty, neither secondary worries me much. The front sevens are a far, far greater concern for me.

And really, when it comes down to it, the strength of the Carolina pass rush is the one thing that I'm truly worried about in a potential NFC Championship game. Pass protection has been Seattle's biggest weakness/flaw this season, and I think Carolina is more uniquely suited to exploit that weakness than any team in the league.

 

[Marvin49]

Whatever... my whole point was that I would rather face Carolina. Mediocre offense. Mediocre secondary. Regardless how good their front seven is, they are not as complete a team as San Francisco, not as well coached and they don't have the playoff resume either.

Anybody who would actually prefer to face the Niners in the NFCCG should really be careful what they wish for IMO.

Mediocre offense? They averaged 2.5 points less per game than SF did.

Mediocre secondary? Maybe so, but their pass D ranked higher than SF's did in pretty much ALL categories. Fewer yards allowed. Fewer TDs allowed. More interceptions. Fewer net yards gained per attempt. More sacks. I'm not making this stuff up.

...and SF was missing their #1 target in the pass game for nearly 3/4ths of the season. There is a reason Kaps QB rating was over 105 over the last 6 weeks.

How do you think Carolina would have faired without Steve Smith for the first 11 games?

You sure do love stats. The only reason Carolina is ranked higher vs the pass is because the Niners gave up like 700 yards in the last two games. Thats still a part of the stats so can't be ignored, but stats don't tell you everything.

To me, a better measure of how good a team is overall would be Net points....that is the difference between points for and points against. The 49ers were third in the NFL behind only the Brocos and the Seahawks. Thats despite 2 early season lopsided scores and a badly struggling offense with no Crab and a hobbled Vernon. Hell, after week 3, the Niners lost 2 games all year by a combined 4 points.

I'm not taking the Panthers lightly. They are really good...but the logic you are using makes no sense to me.

 

[Marvin49]

Maybe so, but their pass D ranked higher than SF's did in pretty much ALL categories.

Except for all the categories you left out like 1) completion % (for which the Panthers are one of the worst in the league), 2) passes defensed (Carolina fifth from the bottom), 3) 1st down %, 4) YPC, 5) opponents QB rating, and 6) big plays.

As for the five you did discuss:

Fewer yards allowed:

Yep, Panthers are 6th and 9ers are 7th in the NFL (9ers gave up 5.7 more passing yards a game)

Fewer TDs allowed:

Yep. Panthers are 4th and 9ers are 5th in the NFL.

Fewer net yards gained per attempt.

Nope. Panthers gave up 6.09 yards an attempt and 9ers gave up 6.04 yards an attempt. More than happy to call that a tie, but a point for the Panthers I don't see.

More interceptions:

Yep, Panthers had 20 and the 9ers had 18.

More sacks:

Yep, Panthers definitely have the strong edge here, although that probably supports your argument about their front 7 more than it does your argument about their secondary.


In any case, the Panthers are really good. We agree on that.

Thing is, though, I'm not making an argument for the Panthers' secondary. I'm challenging the idea that it is any more "mediocre" than the SF secondary. In all honesty, neither secondary worries me much. The front sevens are a far, far greater concern for me.

And really, when it comes down to it, the strength of the Carolina pass rush is the one thing that I'm truly worried about in a potential NFC Championship game. Pass protection has been Seattle's biggest weakness/flaw this season, and I think Carolina is more uniquely suited to exploit that weakness than any team in the league.

Well the 49er seconday has a pro bowl safety who probably had his best year in SF (to be honest didn't like him before this year) and a rookie of the year candidate in Eric Reid. The corners are solid, but not spectacular.

As for the pass rush, Aldon Smith is back. He's a monster. He looks better now than he did before treatment. If you watch the first several plays vs Green Bay you'll see a bit of what I mean. He's become not just a great pass rusher, but a very good run defender as well. The only reason he didn't reach double digit sacks in essentially 9 games is that he was routinely double and triple teamed and chipped by a back.

Carolina has a great pass rush. No question there. They got Kap 6 times in SF. It's no joke...just saying you shouldn't sleep on SF.

 

[volsunghawk]

Whatever... my whole point was that I would rather face Carolina. Mediocre offense. Mediocre secondary. Regardless how good their front seven is, they are not as complete a team as San Francisco, not as well coached and they don't have the playoff resume either.

Anybody who would actually prefer to face the Niners in the NFCCG should really be careful what they wish for IMO.

Mediocre offense? They averaged 2.5 points less per game than SF did.

Mediocre secondary? Maybe so, but their pass D ranked higher than SF's did in pretty much ALL categories. Fewer yards allowed. Fewer TDs allowed. More interceptions. Fewer net yards gained per attempt. More sacks. I'm not making this stuff up.

...and SF was missing their #1 target in the pass game for nearly 3/4ths of the season. There is a reason Kaps QB rating was over 105 over the last 6 weeks.

How do you think Carolina would have faired without Steve Smith for the first 11 games?

You sure do love stats. The only reason Carolina is ranked higher vs the pass is because the Niners gave yp like 700 yards in the last two games. Thats still a part of the stats so can't be ignored, but stats don't tell you everything.

To me, a better measure of how good a team is overall would be Net points....that is the difference between points for and points against. The 49ers were third in the NFL behind only the Brocos and the Seahawks. Thats despite 2 early season lopsided scores and a badly struggling offense with no Crab and a hobbled Vernon.

I'm not taking the panthers lightly. They are really good...but the logic you are using makes no sense to me.

Fair enough.

And yeah, I appreciate stats because they are data points. They can illustrate what has occurred over the course of the season.

Note that I'm not saying that any of these stats are predictors, and I fully recognize that they don't reflect a full context (like strength of schedule, as you mentioned before).

 

[Sports Hernia]

Carolina allowed the 2nd fewest yards rushing in the league (better than SF). They tied for fewest rushing TDs allowed (also better than SF). They notched 60 sacks, tops in the league and 22(!) more than the 49ers managed.

Sorry, but that kind of stuff holds weight with me.

Cool. I like to watch the games.

Niners also played without their best pass rusher for almost half the season.

And you don't make excuses???? Riiiiiiighhht!

 

[Largent80]

Endless, blah.

Je-sus SF fans. You are just grasping for any sort of relevance.

Just enjoy your loss @Carolina and look forward to the draft.... :lol:

 

[Kakaww]

Umm, Carolina. Because Niners. That said, I just don't have faith in Carolina's offense to avoid mistakes. They sometimes get a bit sloppy, especially in regards to the reciever/QB connection. Dropped passes, overthrows and just a lack of scary talent there means they may not be able to take advantage of the Niners only possible defensive weakness in the secondary (which is still quite good!)

The Niners offense doesn't exactly amaze me, but I trust Davis, Boldin, Gore and Crabtree to make some big plays to extend drives. A couple long drives for touchdowns probably wins this game. We'll see if they can handle Carolina's pressure better this time around.

Niners 20-17

 

[RolandDeschain]

I want the 49ers to win because their fans will hate losing to us in the NFCCG way more than losing to the Panthers in the divisional round.

 

[drdiags]

Need a don't care option. Given that isn't a choice, I take Panthers. This is solely because Cam has not played here, so it would be an extra detail he has to deal with besides all the other outside influences.

The 9ers haven't fared well here the past two games but I would think the environment is eventually going to get more manageable for the QB. Alex Smith toward the end of his time with the 9ers was able to win here, having done it a few times, the last time being the Dec 24th game. So if you are looking for a bigger advantage for the defense, pull for the Panthers.

From an offensive point of view, either team's defense is going to be a problem. It usually takes a while but eventually, at home, the Seahawks can generate some offense against the 9ers. The past 2 games against the Panthers have been lower scoring, with one or two TDs max. You probably want to play the 9ers defense, just because of the familiarity. Both will be really tough to score on.

This all assumes the Seahawks took care of the business Saturday afternoon, otherwise I really don't care.