Would Hawks Let Wilson Walk?

[Largent80]

 

[Anthony!]

And we need to ask our selves with Lynch thinking on retiring every year, with the lack of oline and Wr can we keep being SB contenders without him? Answer NO we cannot. FYI they will not tag him it will be off the table or he will hold out. If they offer him a fair deal , based on what he has done, then there will be no problem. However if they think like you that he is replaceable and will not miss a beat without him then he will be gone. There is a difference between living on and being SB contenders every year. OF course the Hawk swill liv eon, but they will have lost their window, until they find a new franchise QB and given the LOB are only signed for 4 years I dare say the window for this group will be gone.

Hey Anthony, I think your monkey got lose and logged onto .Net. Only way I can explain why someone would say that Wilson will hold out if tagged. I mean. if tagged, he'll be scheduled to make 20 mil plus. And he won't show up? Damn that monkey. Got me.

SC

correct why show up and take a chance getting hurt, and then getting nothing and if it is career ending then what. 20 mil now is not more than 20 mil a year for say 5 years.

Well, that is what he and his agent will be doing now if they do not agree to a long term deal before this season. Except, instead of the $20+ million he would get under the franchise tag, he will get less than $1.7 million for this season.

No if they do not come to a long term deal, but he gets them to not tag him he will guarantee himself being an FA and he will get his long term deal. If the tag remains on the table the only guarantee he has is he is at the Hawks mercy, they will, hold all the cards for 2 years.

 

[hawknation2015]

No if they do not come to a long term deal, but he gets them to not tag him he will guarantee himself being an FA and he will get his long term deal. If the tag remains on the table the only guarantee he has is he is at the Hawks mercy, they will, hold all the cards for 2 years.

I have a couple thoughts in response. I don't think Wilson is the kind of player who would ever holdout, i.e. miss practices or games and thereby hurt his team for more immediate financial leverage. Such a move would hurt his image and reputation, costing him more in endorsements (not to mention wins on the field) than it would be worth. It's surprising to me that you have such a low opinion of Wilson that you think he would ever consider the nuclear option.

Ultimately, both sides should want to get a long-term deal done as soon as possible. The organization will probably save some money in the long term by signing him now as opposed to later, and it will remove a distraction. His agent should have the common sense and professional responsibility to secure a long-term deal before his client risks injury this season. That is unless his goal is purely making as much money as possible by waiting at the expense of his client's security and long term image. The organization has proven that it rewards its players. The onus is on this agent to prove that he can get an NFL deal done on fair terms that gives his client some security.

 

[Anthony!]

No if they do not come to a long term deal, but he gets them to not tag him he will guarantee himself being an FA and he will get his long term deal. If the tag remains on the table the only guarantee he has is he is at the Hawks mercy, they will, hold all the cards for 2 years.

I have a couple thoughts in response. I don't think Wilson is the kind of player who would ever holdout, i.e. miss practices or games and thereby hurt his team for more immediate financial leverage. Such a move would hurt his image and reputation, costing him more in endorsements (not to mention wins on the field) than it would be worth. It's surprising to me that you have such a low opinion of Wilson that you think he would ever consider the nuclear option.

Ultimately, both sides should want to get a long-term deal done as soon as possible. The organization will probably save some money in the long term by signing him now as opposed to later, and it will remove a distraction. His agent should have the common sense and professional responsibility to secure a long-term deal before his client risks injury this season. That is unless his goal is purely making as much money as possible by waiting at the expense of his client's security and long term image. The organization has proven that it rewards its players. The onus is on this agent to prove that he can get an NFL deal done on fair terms that gives his client some security.

Actually it is not Wilson that I have a low opinion of but the team, as I think they are counting on Wilson being such a nice guy they can take advantage of. You see everyone keeps saying he is to nice to do it, and to all team, that includes the Hawks who are saying it and will take advantage of it, this is business after all.

 

[hawknation2015]

No if they do not come to a long term deal, but he gets them to not tag him he will guarantee himself being an FA and he will get his long term deal. If the tag remains on the table the only guarantee he has is he is at the Hawks mercy, they will, hold all the cards for 2 years.

I have a couple thoughts in response. I don't think Wilson is the kind of player who would ever holdout, i.e. miss practices or games and thereby hurt his team for more immediate financial leverage. Such a move would hurt his image and reputation, costing him more in endorsements (not to mention wins on the field) than it would be worth. It's surprising to me that you have such a low opinion of Wilson that you think he would ever consider the nuclear option.

Ultimately, both sides should want to get a long-term deal done as soon as possible. The organization will probably save some money in the long term by signing him now as opposed to later, and it will remove a distraction. His agent should have the common sense and professional responsibility to secure a long-term deal before his client risks injury this season. That is unless his goal is purely making as much money as possible by waiting at the expense of his client's security and long term image. The organization has proven that it rewards its players. The onus is on this agent to prove that he can get an NFL deal done on fair terms that gives his client some security.

Actually it is not Wilson that I have a low opinion of but the team, as I think they are counting on Wilson being such a nice guy they can take advantage of. You see everyone keeps saying he is to nice to do it, and to all team, that includes the Hawks who are saying it and will take advantage of it, this is business after all.

The organization has a consistent track recored of rewarding its core players. If Wilson's agent was asking for 5 years, $100 million with $50 million guaranteed, the negotiations would be over and done with tomorrow. One hurdle is they are dealing with a baseball agent who has never successfully brokered an NFL deal. And there is a certain risk-reward calculation involved on their side. If they wait to sign by asking for too much now (and Russell does not, god forbid, get injured) then they can potentially sign an even bigger deal ($130+ million) after Luck signs his deal, which will escalate the barometer. It is in Wilson's best interest to lower the risk and secure his future with guaranteed money ($50+ million). And it is in the organization's best interest to continue to fairly reward its players and end a possible distraction.

 

[kearly]

Just about every player that gets tagged holds out until the games start. It is like their get-out-of-camp-free card. Why is that any different in this case? How many years in a row did Walter hold out?

Chances are it will never get to the point where a franchise tag is actually used for Russ.

Even if it did, Wilson holding out on a franchise tag would really surprise me. Say what you want about WRs, OTs, TEs or RBs, it's just not something QBs do. The closest example I can think of is Carson Palmer in 2011. But his holdout was related to his demands for a trade, and his public vow to never play for the Bengals again. And of all QBs, I think Wilson with his 24/7/365 mentality to winning, would be the very last QB to ever do it.

Everybody knows they'll pay him. Way more than he's worth, and it is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster over the next several years, but they'll pay him. I don't think they have the money left to do it this year barring some pretty big cuts, but they'll pay him at some point. Or they'll bring in another running quarterback for 1/10th the cost.

If there was a stat like WAR for football, not even the Mike Trouts and Felix Hernandez's of baseball could compare with Wilson's value. No position in the four major sports creates value to a team like an effective quarterback can. Seattle has averaged five wins more per year with Wilson than they did the year before they acquired him. Nearly half of Seattle's all time postseason wins were led by Wilson.

Of course, we can't give all 5 of those wins only to Wilson. After all, Seattle's D took a small step forward in 2012. I think this is a bit on the low end, but let's compromise and say Wilson is worth 3 wins.

Based on the three win premise with a 12 win average, that would mean Wilson's value to the team would be 25% of their win total. 25% of Seattle's current cap number would equal $37 million in 2015. Even if you thought Wilson was only a two win player, that would put his value at $24.7 million in 2015.

If Wilson were to sign for $22 million, the cap hit would equal only 15% of Seattle's adjusted 2015 cap number. Can anyone say with a straight face that an elite QB isn't worth 15% of his team's resources?

This doesn't even get into the long term realities of the deal. For example, Wilson's real cap hit might be closer to $18 or $19 million if the deal is spread over Wilson's last cheap year. Not only that, but even $22 million will basically be the new 'Flacco money' by 2016 simply due to NFL inflation. And though Wilson might be the highest AYP QB in 2015, he'll probably be the 10th highest AYP QB by the end of the deal as all the QB's who come after him get paid more and more.

I think it's way off base to say that Wilson isn't worth every penny he's paid, it's just the opposite. It is virtually impossible to give WIlson a contract that pays him more than he's contributing to the team in return.

As far as letting players go to pay Wilson, that shouldn't be necessary, so long as the cap continues to increase by almost $10 million a year. And all signs suggest it will.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Once again Kearly hits it out of the park. When you look at the good contracts of the true franchise elite level quarterbacks they currently get 15-20% of the total cap, that is the benchmark, it's when you get a Brees contract or pay a Cutler/Flacco level quarterback that 15-20% or more that you're screwed.

You never keep robbing from Paul to pay Peter (Brees) or pay mid-level talent first tier money (Cutler/Flacco) or bad things happen. Like us getting Jimmy Graham for a song and dance. :mrgreen:

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Just about every player that gets tagged holds out until the games start. It is like their get-out-of-camp-free card. Why is that any different in this case? How many years in a row did Walter hold out?

Chances are it will never get to the point where a franchise tag is actually used for Russ.

Even if it did, Wilson holding out on a franchise tag would really surprise me. Say what you want about WRs, OTs, TEs or RBs, it's just not something QBs do. The closest example I can think of is Carson Palmer in 2011. But his holdout was related to his demands for a trade, and his public vow to never play for the Bengals again. And of all QBs, I think Wilson with his 24/7/365 mentality to winning, would be the very last QB to ever do it.

Everybody knows they'll pay him. Way more than he's worth, and it is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster over the next several years, but they'll pay him. I don't think they have the money left to do it this year barring some pretty big cuts, but they'll pay him at some point. Or they'll bring in another running quarterback for 1/10th the cost.

If there was a stat like WAR for football, not even the Mike Trouts and Felix Hernandez's of baseball could compare with Wilson's value. No position in the four major sports creates value to a team like an effective quarterback can. Seattle has averaged five wins more per year with Wilson than they did the year before they acquired him. Nearly half of Seattle's all time postseason wins were led by Wilson.

Of course, we can't give all 5 of those wins only to Wilson. After all, Seattle's D took a small step forward in 2012. I think this is a bit on the low end, but let's compromise and say Wilson is worth 3 wins.

Based on the three win premise with a 12 win average, that would mean Wilson's value to the team would be 25% of their win total. 25% of Seattle's current cap number would equal $37 million in 2015. Even if you thought Wilson was only a two win player, that would put his value at $24.7 million in 2015.

If Wilson were to sign for $22 million, the cap hit would equal only 15% of Seattle's adjusted 2015 cap number. Can anyone say with a straight face that an elite QB isn't worth 15% of his team's resources?

This doesn't even get into the long term realities of the deal. For example, Wilson's real cap hit might be closer to $18 or $19 million if the deal is spread over Wilson's last cheap year. Not only that, but even $22 million will basically be the new 'Flacco money' by 2016 simply due to NFL inflation. And though Wilson might be the highest AYP QB in 2015, he'll probably be the 10th highest AYP QB by the end of the deal as all the QB's who come after him get paid more and more.

I think it's way off base to say that Wilson isn't worth every penny he's paid, it's just the opposite. It is virtually impossible to give WIlson a contract that pays him more than he's contributing to the team in return.

As far as letting players go to pay Wilson, that shouldn't be necessary, so long as the cap continues to increase by almost $10 million a year. And all signs suggest it will.

What a GREAT post Kip!!
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And IMO you still won't convince Tical he's worth it.

 

[Anthony!]

No if they do not come to a long term deal, but he gets them to not tag him he will guarantee himself being an FA and he will get his long term deal. If the tag remains on the table the only guarantee he has is he is at the Hawks mercy, they will, hold all the cards for 2 years.

I have a couple thoughts in response. I don't think Wilson is the kind of player who would ever holdout, i.e. miss practices or games and thereby hurt his team for more immediate financial leverage. Such a move would hurt his image and reputation, costing him more in endorsements (not to mention wins on the field) than it would be worth. It's surprising to me that you have such a low opinion of Wilson that you think he would ever consider the nuclear option.

Ultimately, both sides should want to get a long-term deal done as soon as possible. The organization will probably save some money in the long term by signing him now as opposed to later, and it will remove a distraction. His agent should have the common sense and professional responsibility to secure a long-term deal before his client risks injury this season. That is unless his goal is purely making as much money as possible by waiting at the expense of his client's security and long term image. The organization has proven that it rewards its players. The onus is on this agent to prove that he can get an NFL deal done on fair terms that gives his client some security.

Actually it is not Wilson that I have a low opinion of but the team, as I think they are counting on Wilson being such a nice guy they can take advantage of. You see everyone keeps saying he is to nice to do it, and to all team, that includes the Hawks who are saying it and will take advantage of it, this is business after all.

The organization has a consistent track recored of rewarding its core players. If Wilson's agent was asking for 5 years, $100 million with $50 million guaranteed, the negotiations would be over and done with tomorrow. One hurdle is they are dealing with a baseball agent who has never successfully brokered an NFL deal. And there is a certain risk-reward calculation involved on their side. If they wait to sign by asking for too much now (and Russell does not, god forbid, get injured) then they can potentially sign an even bigger deal ($130+ million) after Luck signs his deal, which will escalate the barometer. It is in Wilson's best interest to lower the risk and secure his future with guaranteed money ($50+ million). And it is in the organization's best interest to continue to fairly reward its players and end a possible distraction.

1 yes they do and we will see. 2 you really have no clue. For all you know Wilsons agent did ask for 5 years 100 mil and 50 guaranteed, but the FO only wants to pay 18 mil,. You do not know you are assuming. I agree it is in their best interest to reward the players they feel are core and JS said that but he did to say Wilson is one of them even though he had the chance. When Et and Sherman were waiting on their deals JS did say they were core, Makes you wonder.

 

[Anthony!]

Just about every player that gets tagged holds out until the games start. It is like their get-out-of-camp-free card. Why is that any different in this case? How many years in a row did Walter hold out?

Chances are it will never get to the point where a franchise tag is actually used for Russ.

Even if it did, Wilson holding out on a franchise tag would really surprise me. Say what you want about WRs, OTs, TEs or RBs, it's just not something QBs do. The closest example I can think of is Carson Palmer in 2011. But his holdout was related to his demands for a trade, and his public vow to never play for the Bengals again. And of all QBs, I think Wilson with his 24/7/365 mentality to winning, would be the very last QB to ever do it.

Everybody knows they'll pay him. Way more than he's worth, and it is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster over the next several years, but they'll pay him. I don't think they have the money left to do it this year barring some pretty big cuts, but they'll pay him at some point. Or they'll bring in another running quarterback for 1/10th the cost.

If there was a stat like WAR for football, not even the Mike Trouts and Felix Hernandez's of baseball could compare with Wilson's value. No position in the four major sports creates value to a team like an effective quarterback can. Seattle has averaged five wins more per year with Wilson than they did the year before they acquired him. Nearly half of Seattle's all time postseason wins were led by Wilson.

Of course, we can't give all 5 of those wins only to Wilson. After all, Seattle's D took a small step forward in 2012. I think this is a bit on the low end, but let's compromise and say Wilson is worth 3 wins.

Based on the three win premise with a 12 win average, that would mean Wilson's value to the team would be 25% of their win total. 25% of Seattle's current cap number would equal $37 million in 2015. Even if you thought Wilson was only a two win player, that would put his value at $24.7 million in 2015.

If Wilson were to sign for $22 million, the cap hit would equal only 15% of Seattle's adjusted 2015 cap number. Can anyone say with a straight face that an elite QB isn't worth 15% of his team's resources?

This doesn't even get into the long term realities of the deal. For example, Wilson's real cap hit might be closer to $18 or $19 million if the deal is spread over Wilson's last cheap year. Not only that, but even $22 million will basically be the new 'Flacco money' by 2016 simply due to NFL inflation. And though Wilson might be the highest AYP QB in 2015, he'll probably be the 10th highest AYP QB by the end of the deal as all the QB's who come after him get paid more and more.

I think it's way off base to say that Wilson isn't worth every penny he's paid, it's just the opposite. It is virtually impossible to give WIlson a contract that pays him more than he's contributing to the team in return.

As far as letting players go to pay Wilson, that shouldn't be necessary, so long as the cap continues to increase by almost $10 million a year. And all signs suggest it will.

I agree great job, now they just need to do it.

 

[original poster]

I'm amazed people actually believe Russ would hold out of training camp. Seriously? Mr compete 24/7 missing an opportunity to compete and improve? Please...

 

[Anthony!]

I'm amazed people actually believe Russ would hold out of training camp. Seriously? Mr compete 24/7 missing an opportunity to compete and improve? Please...

IF that is his only recourse to not get tagged then yes, at some point the business side has to come into play. He doe snot hold out till they take the tag off the table, he gets tagged, then tagged again and then he is an Fa in the meantime 3 years have passed. 3 years of no security, no long term deal, etc. Heck some media are already painting him as the bad guy, the Hawks know it, they know his image and holding out, or asking for a lot do not match, and they are using it against him. In the end if they do not come to terms on a deal, he either he holds out till the tag is off, or he continues to be tagged for 2 years. as long as the tag is on the table his only real leverage is holding out,. and the hawks are betting he will not because of his image. On the other side other players are watching and if Wilson is a door matt and just lets it all go, their is a respect thing that might get lost. This could get ugly, to me the only real way out is a deal done before camp and a deal both sides can live with, but right now we do not know what they are offering and what Wilsons agent is asking for. we will see.

 

[hawknation2015]

The organization has a consistent track recored of rewarding its core players. If Wilson's agent was asking for 5 years, $100 million with $50 million guaranteed, the negotiations would be over and done with tomorrow. One hurdle is they are dealing with a baseball agent who has never successfully brokered an NFL deal. And there is a certain risk-reward calculation involved on their side. If they wait to sign by asking for too much now (and Russell does not, god forbid, get injured) then they can potentially sign an even bigger deal ($130+ million) after Luck signs his deal, which will escalate the barometer. It is in Wilson's best interest to lower the risk and secure his future with guaranteed money ($50+ million). And it is in the organization's best interest to continue to fairly reward its players and end a possible distraction.

1 yes they do and we will see. 2 you really have no clue. For all you know Wilsons agent did ask for 5 years 100 mil and 50 guaranteed, but the FO only wants to pay 18 mil,. You do not know you are assuming. I agree it is in their best interest to reward the players they feel are core and JS said that but he did to say Wilson is one of them even though he had the chance. When Et and Sherman were waiting on their deals JS did say they were core, Makes you wonder.

That is highly unlikely. Even Kaepernick received $19 million per year. $20 million per year with half guaranteed is the floor for Wilson. Schneider would jump on that if he had the chance.

I have a feeling Wilson's agent wants more than half guaranteed, which would make it difficult to maintain a winning organization in the future if Wilson suffered a career-ending injury, which is always a reality in football.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I'm amazed people actually believe Russ would hold out of training camp. Seriously? Mr compete 24/7 missing an opportunity to compete and improve? Please...

IF that is his only recourse to not get tagged then yes, at some point the business side has to come into play. He doe snot hold out till they take the tag off the table, he gets tagged, then tagged again and then he is an Fa in the meantime 3 years have passed. 3 years of no security, no long term deal, etc. Heck some media are already painting him as the bad guy, the Hawks know it, they know his image and holding out, or asking for a lot do not match, and they are using it against him. In the end if they do not come to terms on a deal, he either he holds out till the tag is off, or he continues to be tagged for 2 years. as long as the tag is on the table his only real leverage is holding out,. and the hawks are betting he will not because of his image. On the other side other players are watching and if Wilson is a door matt and just lets it all go, their is a respect thing that might get lost. This could get ugly, to me the only real way out is a deal done before camp and a deal both sides can live with, but right now we do not know what they are offering and what Wilsons agent is asking for. we will see.

Holding out of camp doesn't stop a player from getting tagged, just ask Walter Jones...........we tagged his ass like five years running.

In fact I'd say most players who get franchised tagged held out for at least part of camp.

Maybe I'm naive, but I refuse to believe Russell would do anything to hurt his team, even his own contract negotiations.

 

[Hasselbeck]

This thread is going to be hilarious when he signs before training camp

 

[Anthony!]

The organization has a consistent track recored of rewarding its core players. If Wilson's agent was asking for 5 years, $100 million with $50 million guaranteed, the negotiations would be over and done with tomorrow. One hurdle is they are dealing with a baseball agent who has never successfully brokered an NFL deal. And there is a certain risk-reward calculation involved on their side. If they wait to sign by asking for too much now (and Russell does not, god forbid, get injured) then they can potentially sign an even bigger deal ($130+ million) after Luck signs his deal, which will escalate the barometer. It is in Wilson's best interest to lower the risk and secure his future with guaranteed money ($50+ million). And it is in the organization's best interest to continue to fairly reward its players and end a possible distraction.

1 yes they do and we will see. 2 you really have no clue. For all you know Wilsons agent did ask for 5 years 100 mil and 50 guaranteed, but the FO only wants to pay 18 mil,. You do not know you are assuming. I agree it is in their best interest to reward the players they feel are core and JS said that but he did to say Wilson is one of them even though he had the chance. When Et and Sherman were waiting on their deals JS did say they were core, Makes you wonder.

That is highly unlikely. Even Kaepernick received $19 million per year. $20 million per year with half guaranteed is the floor for Wilson. Schneider would jump on that if he had the chance.

I have a feeling Wilson's agent wants more than half guaranteed, which would make it difficult to maintain a winning organization in the future if Wilson suffered a career-ending injury, which is always a reality in football.

Yeah but Kaps deal with really incentive based.

 

[Anthony!]

I'm amazed people actually believe Russ would hold out of training camp. Seriously? Mr compete 24/7 missing an opportunity to compete and improve? Please...

IF that is his only recourse to not get tagged then yes, at some point the business side has to come into play. He doe snot hold out till they take the tag off the table, he gets tagged, then tagged again and then he is an Fa in the meantime 3 years have passed. 3 years of no security, no long term deal, etc. Heck some media are already painting him as the bad guy, the Hawks know it, they know his image and holding out, or asking for a lot do not match, and they are using it against him. In the end if they do not come to terms on a deal, he either he holds out till the tag is off, or he continues to be tagged for 2 years. as long as the tag is on the table his only real leverage is holding out,. and the hawks are betting he will not because of his image. On the other side other players are watching and if Wilson is a door matt and just lets it all go, their is a respect thing that might get lost. This could get ugly, to me the only real way out is a deal done before camp and a deal both sides can live with, but right now we do not know what they are offering and what Wilsons agent is asking for. we will see.

Holding out of camp doesn't stop a player from getting tagged, just ask Walter Jones...........we tagged his ass like five years running.

In fact I'd say most players who get franchised tagged held out for at least part of camp.

Maybe I'm naive, but I refuse to believe Russell would do anything to hurt his team, even his own contract negotiations.

Let me try this again, no holding out does not stop a player form being tagged, but if you hold out and do not come in till the tag is off the table it does and the one player that we cannot afford to not have in camp is the QB.

 

[lukerguy]

Question... How much do you think Wilson's market value would have differed if we lost the NFCC on the shoulders of his 0 TD 4INT performance?

 

[Anthony!]

Question... How much do you think Wilson's market value would have differed if we lost the NFCC on the shoulders of his 0 TD 4INT performance?

well since w are playing the what if game, how much would that game have changed if Kearse catches the 2 ball that hit him in the hands instead of letting them bounce off to get Ints?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Let me try this again, no holding out does not stop a player form being tagged, but if you hold out and do not come in till the tag is off the table it does and the one player that we cannot afford to not have in camp is the QB.

This makes no sense.

If the tag's off the table, then that means Russell signed a new deal. It's going to be an either or thing.

btw, this is a conversation for next year. Russell's under contract for 2015, we can't tag him until next year. If he refuses to sign a new deal, then he gets to make 1.5M.