Russ Tonight

[knownone]

So you leave out every traditional stat and red zone numbers, third down success, touchdowns, ints, poor decision throws(turnover worthy throws), passer rating etc and then claim people arguing Russ isn’t trash are the biased ones? Help me make sense of this. You’re cherry picking stats just as much as anyone else is and claiming moral high ground on the issue is intellectually dishonest.

Bottom line. Russ is better than most and is having a decent year. Why that’s so hard for some people to accept is beyond me.

But fine so if Seattle is 7-7 after this next guantlet are you prepared to say Geno sucks too then? I think it’s a bad argument but you used it so why not use it for everyone?

I provided stats for context to highlight why his traditional numbers are misleading; most people know where he ranks in those areas. They've been referenced numerous times in this thread; some are even in my prior messages to you.

As for the other stats. I don't place much value on passer rating. Seattle and Denver's RZ scoring is virtually identical. And while Geno's third-down numbers are not good, he's significantly more efficient on all other downs. For example, Dropback SR evaluates how successful the QB is at staying on schedule in the passing game (getting 1st downs), starting on 1st down through 3rd down. Geno is ranked 6th @ 50%. Wilson is ranked 18th @ 45%. Standard SR is similar; Geno is 9th, while Wilson is 17th. So, I don't put much stock into 3D% because it tells me nothing about what the offense has done on the other downs.

Furthermore, my comment about bias involves your dismissal of the Broncos' O-Line and relative talent level on offense. For some reason—no matter where Russell is—some people act like his supporting cast is on par with East Wichita State. Here, you claimed that Denver's talent was much worse, and when challenged, you did not attempt to dispute the claim other than to dismiss it outright. For example, when I mentioned that Denver is 8th O-Line and Seattle is 30th (PFF), you dismissed the Broncos' O-Line as decent. Maybe bias is too much of a loaded term, and I should have used something else.

It's hard for people to accept because you created a false inevitability. In this thread, you continue to argue that there is only one possible viewpoint on Russell's performance, and anyone who doesn't accept that viewpoint is either goofy or beyond you.

And, if Geno's terrible, I have no issue saying he's terrible. I've done it multiple times this year.

 

[Ozzy]

I provided stats for context to highlight why his traditional numbers are misleading; most people know where he ranks in those areas. They've been referenced numerous times in this thread; some are even in my prior messages to you.

As for the other stats. I don't place much value on passer rating. Seattle and Denver's RZ scoring is virtually identical. And while Geno's third-down numbers are not good, he's significantly more efficient on all other downs. For example, Dropback SR evaluates how successful the QB is at staying on schedule in the passing game (getting 1st downs), starting on 1st down through 3rd down. Geno is ranked 6th @ 50%. Wilson is ranked 18th @ 45%. Standard SR is similar; Geno is 9th, while Wilson is 17th. So, I don't put much stock into 3D% because it tells me nothing about what the offense has done on the other downs.

Furthermore, my comment about bias involves your dismissal of the Broncos' O-Line and relative talent level on offense. For some reason—no matter where Russell is—some people act like his supporting cast is on par with East Wichita State. Here, you claimed that Denver's talent was much worse, and when challenged, you did not attempt to dispute the claim other than to dismiss it outright. For example, when I mentioned that Denver is 8th O-Line and Seattle is 30th (PFF), you dismissed the Broncos' O-Line as decent. Maybe bias is too much of a loaded term, and I should have used something else.

It's hard for people to accept because you created a false inevitability. In this thread, you continue to argue that there is only one possible viewpoint on Russell's performance, and anyone who doesn't accept that viewpoint is either goofy or beyond you.

And, if Geno's terrible, I have no issue saying he's terrible. I've done it multiple times this year.

My opinion is just as valid as yours though. I think Seattle has a much better supporting cast and just because we differ we don’t need to attach extortion reasons as if it’s false by default. Seattle is better at WR, RB and TE and I think that’s the consensus take too. Offensive line is better for Denver but that’s one unit.

 

[knownone]

My opinion is just as valid as yours though. I think Seattle has a much better supporting cast and just because we differ we don’t need to attach extortion reasons as if it’s false by default. Seattle is better at WR, RB and TE and I think that’s the consensus take too. Offensive line is better for Denver but that’s one unit.

I never claimed your opinion was invalid. And if anyone states their opinion without evidence, that's fine. This is a sports forum. No issues. However, if you use phrases like "it's ok to admit that" and other forms of communication that downplay the opposing perspective. You might want to provide more than just an opinion.

 

[Ozzy]

I never claimed your opinion was invalid. And if anyone states their opinion without evidence, that's fine. This is a sports forum. No issues. However, if you use phrases like "it's ok to admit that" and other forms of communication that downplay the opposing perspective. You might want to provide more than just an opinion.

You’re leaving out context though. There are posts after posts of anyone saying anything even approaching the idea that Russ isn’t the worst QB in the league is a clown take. Secondly you claimed I left out stats because of a bias(I think it was you?) I could be wrong but regardless I listed every stat that the masses have used as evidence for play like TD/INT, passer rating, 3rd down success rate etc but left out a singular sites advanced metrics while you guys use the advanced metrics and ignore the others while claiming everyone else is biased. It’s a little hypocritical and not objective as you keep claiming any more than anyone else is.

Russ has been decent this year, Geno has decision making problems going in almost a full year now and isn’t playing great football. That has consistently been my take throughout this whole debate and is the overwhelmingly what most people believe. You don’t have to agree with that but to me it’s hard not to hold at least a similar view.

That’s probably my final post on the subject because we’re running this into the ground

 

[LastRideOut]

Kinda knew that a thread with the title "Russ Tonight" would attract all the Russ groupies like a female cat in heat, and look here, that's exactly what we have going on in this thread.

 

[Palmegranite]

It attracted football fans of the only game on that night. I wouldn't read too much into it if I were you....

 

[OrangeGravy]

my problem with your take is you look for every reason to talk against the stats to prove Russ sucks but with Geno you take the complete opposite approach in trying to convinve everyone he's better than he really is. Doesn't seem consistent. Russ is having a much better year than Geno overall, would you agree with that?

I could easily be confusing you with someone else so if I am I apologize and Im not being snarky, I mean that lol

Not even close. Apples to oranges. They're being asked to do different things. Best way to explain it would be a gymnastics example. Take an event like the vault. Russell's routine would have zero potential points for difficulty and Geno's would have a lot. A perfectly executed vault from Russell wouldn't be enough to compete with Geno's score unless he completely missed the apparatus and face planted

 

[OrangeGravy]

Yeah I still don't get the Russ hate. That was one of the best throw and catches of the year and on the year Russ is near the top of the league again which is pretty impressive considering how bad last year was. Why Seattle fans can't admit it is goofy. He is prime Russ? No but he's playing pretty damn good football with a much worse supporting cast than Geno has and those same people are falling all over themselves to excuse Geno's play while being ultra critical of Russ and trying to tell me they're not biased about Russ.....Yeah ok dude.

I get why people got pissed about the divorce but at this point who cares.

Why would anyone be pissed at the divorce? They should be pissed it didn’t happen in 2015/2016 or whenever the first extension was offered. That was the biggest mistake. Should've traded him then with a year left on the original contract.

 

[OrangeGravy]

Terry Bradshaw says Sean Payton didn't want Kyler Murray, has 'no choice' but to embrace Russell Wilson

The new Broncos coach is looking to rejuvenate Wilson in 2023

www.cbssports.com

He didn't have a choice. This is well known. Vacancies came down to Denver and Arizona.

I have no agenda. Look back at the posts I made in 2020 and 2021 quoting factual, but far less glamorous stats that are as much a part of his legacy as the TDs and pass completions and were the reason he was the enigma he became here.

I didn't even have to say anything last year.

And honestly, I'm content to just let whoever wants to think he's great, think that. When you actually pose questions as to why he's poor in several statistical categories over his career and how being poor in them (categories that are undeniably tied to overall performance) negatively impacts a team and want to engage in a detailed discussion, you get zero takers and just a bunch of regurgitation of the same Wilson stats. Or, conspiracy theories as to why he is bad, which always revolve around SOMEONE ELSE hurting him (pete, his now 5th play caller, etc). Never a substantive discussion about ALL of the factors at play in evaluating QB performance.

And I have an agenda? If I had an agenda, I would be the one hiding behind conspiracy theories, not the one starting threads about real metrics... key metrics that reflect the overall play of a qb. It's only here, amongst his hardcore fans that objective review is cast aside as dislike.

Simple things like even this year, you know what team averages the fewest plays run per game? Denver. Is there a correlation between offensive effectiveness and plays per game? Sure. You're either clearly in thr group that features a dynamic fast and high scoring offense, or you struggle to do so. Which is Denver?

Or, if you look at their average yards per play over the season vs the last 3 games, which everyone is raving have been Wilsons best, they've gone from 5.2 yards per play to 4.6 over their 'feature wins'. Is that the sign of a team with a qb carrying them? In no universe. NO. It ranks 25th in the league. It's the signature of a team winning around its offense.

Let me say it again. Over their signature wins, their average yards per play is .2 better than the NY Jets at 25th. What does that say? It says they arent winning because of their offense. They are winning because of their coach's strategy to limit mistakes. The only teams worse? Jets, Cards, Panthers, Giants. Not hate, just facts. And not even facts slandering Russ. He's just not carrying the team nor is he playing 'great' ball. He's mastered efficient play. At that, he's on another level.

And yards per play in his signature win vs the Bills? 4.2.

He hasn't passed for more than 200 yards since October 1st and only has 3 games for the year better than 200 yards. Not 300. 200 hundred. With a low of 95. Is that me hating on Russ, or fans elevating great 'manager' performanc to something more?

Again, and this isn't slandering Wilson because he's put up great compl % and TD to INT. But those stats have NEVER been in question with him. Ever.
It's just obvious that his game is being masterfully managed, more than he's found his MOJO.

And shoot, maybe if Sean keeps drilling into him how to just check the ball down l, process defense and refuses to
let him resort to hero ball the way Pete allowed him to here for the next year or two, he'll actually become the player he always fancied himself as. But does his play show that now? No. He's doing well what he's so far capable of in an offense who's ceiling is significantly higher, given the coach, than whats been shown.

Crown him if you want. Makes no difference to me.

They're winning because the Chiefs gave it away 5 times and the Bills 4 times, and that almost wasn't enough

 

[OrangeGravy]

Fair enough I’m not going to change your mind. I disagree with most of this and don’t think it’s even all that close as Wilson is playing much better. But this is all subjective and I could be wrong?

It's not subjective at all. There isn't 1 person worth their salt, who knows the position who would come to that conclusion.

 

[bileever]

Let's just say next man to win the Super Bowl wins.

 

[BASF]

Damn, this was an entertaining read. Let's see if I can put a bow on this with a little perspective. There may be twenty or thirty people that think Shane Waldron is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, and most would probably be blood relatives. Meanwhile, Sean Payton has been considered one of the best offensive minds in football by pretty much everyone since Waldron was in highschool. Who do you think would be calling more successful red zone and third down plays? Coaching matters more than most people want to admit.

 

[Lagartixa]

It's not subjective at all. There isn't 1 person worth their salt, who knows the position who would come to that conclusion.

It is subjective to some extent.
So whose opinion can we trust? Sean Payton is the guy who has to try to get the most he can out of Wilson, and he sees a lot more of Wilson than we do. What does he think?
If Payton thought Wilson was playing well, he would be taking advantage of it. Instead, the Broncos are 29th in passing offense, behind several teams that have had multiple QBs this season. Wilson is 23rd in both pass attempts and passing yards. He's also 27th in both intended air yards per pass attempt and completed air yards per completion. So Payton has Wilson throwing fewer and shorter passes. Payton's version of Russball (which Wilson fans inaccurately called "Peteball") is significantly more restricted than the version Pete Carroll developed to get as much as possible out of Wilson's strengths while minimizing the damage done by his limitations. The way Payton is using Wilson does not look in any way like taking advantage of having a QB who is actually playing well. It looks like trying to minimize the damage a not-that-good QB can do to the team.

 

[Cyrus12]

This thread and russ for mvp gonna blow up tonight after they beat the Vikings....

 

[IndyHawk]

This thread and russ for mvp gonna blow up tonight after they beat the Vikings....

What happens if the Vikes win?

 

[Cyrus12]

What happens if the Vikes win?

Its Russ's time to cook...finally...after all these years....

 

[Ozzy]

Kinda knew that a thread with the title "Russ Tonight" would attract all the Russ groupies like a female cat in heat, and look here, that's exactly what we have going on in this thread.

Or you continue to be wrong about him when you try to convince everyone he’s one of the worst QB’s in the league and people remaining you of Joe wrong you’ve been on this issue is probably a little frustrating?

 

[Maelstrom787]

To put things in perspective, Geno is beating Russ in overall yardage by a good amount.

Please don't get me wrong. Yardage is not a great indicator of overall play, but it is a good indicator of how little Russ is having to do right now. Fair credit to him that his efficiency is off the charts - he looks positively vintage right now. But it's the classic Russ - he feasts when he doesn't have to carry the offense, falters when he does. With a running game and severe limitations on his overall responsibility, he can pick you apart when it matters and cruise to a dub when throwing for 150 and having like 20 attempts. That's a credit to him, but he's never going to shoulder the load again like an Allen or a Mahomes, or especially a throwback like Burrow.

Geno defenders defend his position as, like, the 15th to 20th best quarterback in the league. Russ defenders generally have to defend his position as a generational player, and I think that's a bigger ask. Different set of expectations for these guys. It's why Russ is getting paid 50+ and Geno is getting 30 APY and won't even live to see the 30 APY cap hit portion of the contract.

Drop Russ in this situation, and he's performing at a level roughly equal to Geno right now. I'd bet a whole lotta money.

 

[Ozzy]

To put things in perspective, Geno is beating Russ in overall yardage by a good amount.

Please don't get me wrong. Yardage is not a great indicator of overall play, but it is a good indicator of how little Russ is having to do right now. Fair credit to him that his efficiency is off the charts - he looks positively vintage right now. But it's the classic Russ - he feasts when he doesn't have to carry the offense, falters when he does. With a running game and severe limitations on his overall responsibility, he can pick you apart when it matters and cruise to a dub when throwing for 150 and having like 20 attempts. That's a credit to him, but he's never going to shoulder the load again like an Allen or a Mahomes, or especially a throwback like Burrow.

Geno defenders defend his position as, like, the 15th to 20th best quarterback in the league. Russ defenders generally have to defend his position as a generational player, and I think that's a bigger ask. Different set of expectations for these guys. It's why Russ is getting paid 50+ and Geno is getting 30 APY and won't even live to see the 30 APY cap hit portion of the contract.

Drop Russ in this situation, and he's performing at a level roughly equal to Geno right now. I'd bet a whole lotta money.

I know you quantified it but yardage is possibly the worst metric to measure how someone is doing. I’ve watched a ton of games this year and he’s flat out playing better than most.

I would bet almost anything Russ and Geno in the same situation and Russ is light years better as he has been outside of one weird year where everything went wrong. Russ can still make plays with his legs, doesn’t throw nearly as many turnover worthy throws and is just a better football player.

I’ll just agree to disagree but Russ continues to be better than fans what to admit.

I don’t think Russ is a generational player now but he was for a decade. Knownone argued for weeks until very recently that Geno was a top 10QB (I may be remembering it wrong) and many did up until just a couple weeks ago. For sure the pro Geno camp was dwindled in size but it was there. I would give up almost anything to have a QB with 20 red zone touchdowns and zero turnovers. That wins you a lot of football games

 

[Maelstrom787]

I know you quantified it but yardage is possibly the worst metric to measure how someone is doing. I’ve watched a ton of games this year and he’s flat out playing better than most.

I would bet almost anything Russ and Geno in the same situation and Russ is light years better as he has been outside of one weird year where everything went wrong. Russ can still make plays with his legs, doesn’t throw nearly as many turnover worthy throws and is just a better football player.

I’ll just agree to disagree but Russ continues to be better than fans what to admit.

I agree that he's playing great ball, though. I just don't think he's capable of playing great ball anymore outside of this framework of heavy rushing and letting Russ push the ball while limiting his overall passing attempts. If he were being forced to throw it 40 times in a dysfunctional offense, he'd be right back to 2022. This seems reasonable after watching his career to this point.

I've always said, limit his overall pass attempts and buoy the offense with a heavy run split, and Russ can operate at his best. He's 24th overall in pass attempts and has 3 quarterbacks ahead of him with 1-2 less games played, and he's already back to his old self.