I tend to avoid going into extreme detailed matchups, stats, injury reports when comparing two teams when it's not my team playing.
The simply way to look at this matchup is this:
Seahawks won the last game by 2 points.
Seahawks had home field advantage, and it was very real.
Seahawks had Earl Thomas.
Rematch:
In Atlanta, no Earl Thomas.
The ATL home field advantage is enough in most cases to offset a full strength Seahawks. It's not as much the home field advantage with the Falcons, but more simply being AWAY from Seattle (but that Georgia Dome does get loud if things go the Falcons way). That pass rush plus the 12th man is freaking violent when it's on.
Even with that pass rush, Matthew Ryan put up the throws he did. I was impressed by his performance in that game more than a bunch of his wins. Just like Romo's in Seattle two years ago, even if the Cowboys lost that game. It was more about his resilience, not so much the throws.
Earl Thomas absence has been affecting the Hawks pass D more than Chancellor's. The stats bare it out, and that <= 10 point loss streak was broken not long after he went out. That Carson Palmer bomb has been unseen against the Seahawks in at least a few years?
Largely untalked about here is Kyle Shanahan. He schemed up that RG3 led game plan a few years ago that had the Hawks on the ropes for a little bit. Now that attacking that middle third of the field is on the table, there's a lot more field for the Hawks to defend in the rematch, and he's smart enough to do it.
Now of course, on paper this seems very advantageous for the Falcons.
What could go wrong?
1. Seahawks run game against Detroit was no fluke but a return for real -- with a decent TOP, Hawks can be in the game. Without a real run game, just can't see how the Hawks can be in this game. Don't think it would be insulting to state that.
2. Seahawks defense shows up full force AND for whatever reason the Falcons offense underachieves. Don't think that will happen since the Falcons aren't playoff newbs, but this is why you play the games. Maybe a combination of a run game that falters and Ryan panicking.
3. Russell Wilson - his slow starts never doom him unless his defense cannot protect him, which has only happened one time in 5 seasons (Packers this year, and maybe you could argue Panthers in the playoffs). He has an annoying (if you are a rival fan) resilience. Even I, one of his harshest critics cannot deny this of him. He makes Cam Newton look like a high school player in this respect.
I don't care if Deion Sanders returned to his old team this weekend, Wilson will get his trademark 1 or 2 deep balls a game against a CB. It's just how it is. Only a matter of how much it matters in the end.
He had one or two deep shots to Lockett in a 9-3 loss to the Rams this year, it's just that the offense couldn't sustain drives for whatever reason. It's almost impossible to stop, even the Packers and Bucs allowed at least 1 or 2 throws.
Only a question of whether it will matter this weekend.
4. Seahawks playoff pedigree - it's something I totally discounted this week with the Lions. I ignored it completely and it became obvious as that game went on. If this game is close going deep into the 4th quarter, the Seahawks will have the advantage. Their 2014 NFC comeback win is all you need to know about whether or not the Seahawks will win a very tight playoff game. Lucky as hell to win that game? Sure. But it still had to be won, and that trend hasn't gone away from the Hawks.
Anything is possible but the trends do not bode well for the Seahawks this game.