kearly":18hsbdpw said:
The Pats aren't going to run the ball, look at the 2nd half of the Baltimore game and that will give you an inkling of what Belichick is going to dial up. If I was a betting man I'd bet the over on Brady's pass attempts. I expect 50 or even 60 attempts in this game, almost all of them short.
The key for New England will be their efficiency on 3rd down. This is a very difficult way to beat Seattle, but it can be done if Brady plays a perfect game. Of course, it's really hard to throw that many passes and eliminate turnovers. Which btw, is exactly how the 2012 meeting went. Brady set a personal record for passes thrown in that game, and moved the ball well, but lost in large part because of turnovers.
New England's defense is very good at limiting the big play, but struggles at stopping the short ones. Gonna see a lot of 15 play drives in this game for both teams.
One of the reasons I think Seattle should be favored in this game is because both teams are going to run a lot of plays, but New England will be going through the air, Seattle on the ground. Turnover rates and negative play rates on pass attempts are much higher than they are for rushes.
Penalties for holding will be huge in this game. A 10 yard penalty on either of these offenses with their short yardage focus will likely lead to a punt.
Good post and I can't disagree with much except the "Ne's defense is very good at limiting the big play". Statistically, it's not true, but I haven't watched enough of the Patriots to know if they were giving up big plays in the beginning of the season and are better at it now, but they are somewhere around 29th in the league at allowing big pass plays. It's been all over NFL.com that the Seahawks are the tops in the league in explosive pass plays as a percentage, so that's actually a strength vs. weakness on that front.
Baltimore had no problem throwing it down field on the Pats. Baltimore is also a very balanced team that runs the ball well. If the Pats over play the run, I can see us hitting plays down field. Quick ! outside of Steve Smith and Torrey Smith, name another Baltimore WR. I can't. Yet those "nobody WRs" had a pretty good game against the "2nd best secondary in the league".
I also agree if Brady throws 45 times, the Pats lose. Also, if they try to rub route and dink and dunk us to death it's going to look a lot like the Denver game. Pats fans hate to see the comparison, but in the passing game it's eerily similar. Manning didn't have the arm strength to challenge us deep and Brady doesn't anymore either. The Broncos WRs are bigger, faster and more physical than the Pats WR corps and they didn't manage to do a lot against us either. Manning set SB records for attempts and completions, yet they scored 8 points. I'd be shocked if Bellichick comes out and tries the same thing.
They HAVE to run the ball. When they've gotten over 100 yards rushing, they've average something like 42 points per game. When we've given up 100 yards rushing, we're something like 1-4 this year.
