MacDonald vs Johnson decision time

[Mistashoesta]

MACDONALD

 

[bigcc]

The maddening part, to me, is how nerd Twitter was fine with roasting Campbell on the go decision but every fourth down model that people use had it as a moderate-to-strong go situation over taking the long-ish field goal at the end.

I just wish they were consistent. They would've been fine saying "Dan Campbell made some bad decisions!" later and posting him on a graph if he had ignored the models and went for the 3 points.

I like Campbell going, personally. Part of the ethos of the organization. It's a shame they couldn't convert either time.

I don't care what any analytics chart says, unless you have absolutely zero faith in your kicker, you take the field goal to go up three scores over going on 4th, hoping to go another 25 yards for a td to go up.... Three scores.

There's certainly value in analytics, particularly with clock management, such as throwing on 3rd down, and rushing on 4th.... If they'd had 3 timeouts they could have gotten the ball back with 40-45 seconds just needing to get in fg range, whoops!

That being said, analytic nerds and their models don't account for the personnel (coaches or players) , momentum of the game, weather, how the refs are calling the game, whether you're playing a road game in a barren stadium or full house, timeouts remaining etc etc

Enjoy this snippet

Ben Alamar ESPN's Director of Sports Analytics

Luke Kerr-Dineen: First things first, what do you factor into your projections?​

Ben Alamar: The main elements are the [betting] line, the down and distance, and the time of the game. We simulate out a game based on historical data of every single outcome of teams in similar situations, then based off those simulations, we look at the win probability.


Good thing those are the only variables in football! The correct thing is to hear the analytics, and apply that information to what you know about your team, but some nerds just focus on the nothing but the numbers

 

[CactusJack]

I still believe that Johnson is headed to the Commanders.

Washington isn't compliant with the Rooney rule as of yet. They still need to interview two minority candidates in person. But once that is done, Johnson will be their guy.

Meanwhile, it is my firm belief that MacDonald is the target here. They've already interviewed minority candidates (Patrick Graham & Ejiro Evero), which means they can hire someone, but are waiting to meet with MacDonald.

 

[Germanhawk7]

Ben Johnson interview tonight in Detroit with us and MacDonald tomorrow morning.

For the Commanders MacDonald tonight and Johnson tomorrow.

For the Commanders its for both Guys the second interview, so its possible we will have a hire of them tomorrow morning.

 

[CactusJack]

Ben Johnson interview tonight in Detroit with us and MacDonald tomorrow morning.

Is this confirmed?

 

[Germanhawk7]

Is this confirmed?

Yes

https://x.com/tompelissero/status/1751944141217440008?s=46

If Johnson will leave after second interview tonight without an agreement im sure MacDonald is our Prio 1.

 

[Wheetie]

Not really his fault. Two crucial dropped passes on plays that would have succeeded and extended drives. One other dropped pass that could have been a TD, although would have been a great catch. A coach is there to put players in the right place to succeed. It's then up to the player.

And the fumble, don't forget about that.

 

[Wheetie]

Macdonald has mastered 2nd half adjustments, Johnson has struggled, and his luck ran out tonight.

Struggled? Dropped passes and a fumble in the 2nd half. And a stupid HC, at least for last nites game. Not Johnson's fault

 

[CactusJack]

Yes

https://x.com/tompelissero/status/1751944141217440008?s=46

If Johnson will leave after second interview tonight without an agreement im sure MacDonald is our Prio 1.

Agreed.

The Hawks are in compliance with the Rooney Rule. Which means they can hire him. So, if they don't make an announcement by tomorrow, then he's not their guy.

 

[JustTheTip]

Leaning Macdonald at this point, but most of you will know better than me because my sample size of paying attention to either closely has been the playoffs.

 

[xray]

Imo , Washington will get one of them 1st . The Hawks will get who's left . I have no clue who's the better hire .

 

[SeaWolv]

Hopefully not Johnson. The Lions offense disappeared in 2nd half in 2 of the 3 playoff games (Rams and 49ers).

Why would you blame BJ for that?? He didn't choose to go for it on 4th down twice instead of kicking makeable FG's, he didn't make Reynolds drop 2 critical catches that would have extended drives or force Goff turtle on a sack he could have easily avoided.

 

[CactusJack]

Imo , Washington will get one of them 1st . The Hawks will get who's left . I have no clue who's the better hire .

Not necessarily.

Washington still has to meet the requirements for the Rooney Rule. They have interviews today & tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Hawks have already interviewed two minority candidates (Evero & Graham). An announcement could come at any time.

They're meeting with Johnson later today.

 

[SeaWolv]

Seems they are both losers today.

Technically I guess you could say that about anyone on either the Lions or Ravens staff. However I would say in Macdonald's case the Baltimore defense definitely showed up, it's the offense didn't. As for Detroit, it came down to execution which was not on Johnson.

 

[SeaWolv]

No, Johnson can't be blamed for the drops but they only put up 6 points against the Rams in 2nd half of the WC game too. So two NFC West opponents where they had a bad 2nd half offense outing.

Defenses typically stiffen in the second half of playoff games. Adjustments are made and players regroup.

 

[SeaWolv]

Macdonald has mastered 2nd half adjustments, Johnson has struggled, and his luck ran out tonight.

Johnson hasn't struggled, the players have. Detroit is another year away from legitimately contending. They need a big receiver like DK, Amon-Ra is like their Lockett. They also need a secondary and some DT help.

 

[Wheetie]

Why would you blame BJ for that?? He didn't choose to go for it on 4th down twice instead of kicking makeable FG's, he didn't make Reynolds drop 2 critical catches that would have extended drives or force Goff turtle on a sack he could have easily avoided.

...or fumble away the ball. That was the biggest turning point amongst the other momentum shifters.

 

[olyfan63]

Why do people keep saying this?

HE'S UNDER CONTRACT, it would be tampering to TALK to him (Macdonald) about a lateral move, let alone hire him.

Wed have to trade for him or hope the giants are nice enough to release him this late in the coaching hunt and have to find a new OC

He's either head coach or he's staying in new york, PERIOD

Your reply shows no understanding of the nuances of the situation Kafka is in.
Daboll is an abusive uncontrolled egomaniac who has a reputation of being difficult to work with.
Kafka and Daboll are barely on speaking terms. Daboll took play-calling duties away from Kafka multiple times last year, micro-managing, impulsive, abusive.
Kafka has probably had enough of the unprofessional and abusive environment and Daboll will probably be happy to see him go.

The Athletic has an article here:

Giants coaching staff: Is OC Mike Kafka next to leave? What's going on in hunt for new DC?

Giants coach Brian Daboll took play-calling duties away from Kafka during the season. Maybe multiple times.

theathletic.com

There's another article here:

The truth behind Brian Daboll, Wink Martindale, Mike Kafka and the Giants’ drama

The story of the Giants’ 2023 undoing is about bad football, a flawed process, and the egos behind them.

www.nydailynews.com

The Seahawks probably only have to add some BS "enhancement" to the OC position, adding "Assistant HC" to the title, where it's a "promotion", and Kafka is OC in Seattle.

I think the Seahawks interviewed Kafka twice for HC because they were looking at him for OC and in particular OC for Mike Macdonald, and that perhaps Macdonald, through his agent, gave the Seahawks a list of offensive minds he's be interested in working with, and Kafka was near the top of that list. (MY speculation)

Macdonald, or Johnson if it winds up being Ben Johnson, is already BEHIND in assembling a coaching staff, and the guys he (eventual HC) would want are being snapped up fast by other newly hired coaches.

 

[WarHawks]

So it sounds like we may have a choice by mid week or so? Exciting.

 

[u0087966]

Hopefully not Johnson. The Lions offense disappeared in 2nd half in 2 of the 3 playoff games (Rams and 49ers).

Johnson doesn't run the ball nor catch passes. Lions PLAYERS fumbled and dropped numerous passes in the 2nd half of the 49ers game....not Johnson's fault.