byau
Active member
I keep thinking that the Seahawks did better than most are saying. Finally I decided to re-watch the game and do an analysis on each drive. Because there's something there, I was sure of it
I don't know how to calculate "sustained" drives, but I figure maybe an eye-test on each drive might yield something. So I started out by just counting how many drives were 3 and outs. How many drives were only 1 first down. And maybe we could see a bit more of the story. Because I was thinking first downs are huge momentum boosts, even if it doesn't end up in a touchdown
So these are my notes from re-watching again
Seahawks receive kick off
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, punt
Lockett bobbled passes on both 2nd and 3rd that likely would have been first downs, not a bad first drive, at least we got 1 first down
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, puntt
3 and out
Seahawks drive: 4 first downs, field goal
Too bad we couldn't score. Nice drive otherwise. The last set of downs Russell was sacked on the facemask non-call, but the facemask was inconsequential, Russell was not escaping anyway. So another good sustained drive which I thought was a good second drive, building upon some success in the first drive.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, turnover on downs:
This drive was the huge 3rd and 6 screen to Arian Foster due to the miscue by Marsh. Almost a reason to worry. But the next drive was the stop with 4th and inches by Kam which in my mind nullified the momentum by the Arian Foster screen.
Seahawks drive: 0 first downs, punt
We had a 3rd and short (3rd and 3) which we couldn't convert. Wasn't a good set of downs, not an entirely bad set of downs, I expected us to convert that 3rd and 3.
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
Another weird set of downs. First down was the big near-TD drop by Stills. What was Earl doing on this play? But the next two downs the Hawks D tightened up and forced the 3 and out
Seahawks drive: 0 first downs, turnover on interception
Horrible set of downs, and a very questionable decision by Russ to throw the ball. Disappointed because this drive and the last drive the momentum is turning the other way a bit.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, Field Goal
Really nice denial by Shead on 3rd and 5 to deny the 1st down so the Dolphins had to go for 3. I'm okay with it.
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, punt
Drive ended with another drop by Lockett on 3rd and 8 that was likely a first. Not bad, but starting to get concerned with Lockett's dropped passes.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, punt
1st down was from a really nice read option by Tannehill. He also didn't slide. opting to run for the 1st. Nice job by Tannehill. 2nd set of downs though included a batted pass by Reed on 2nd, a hurry by Avril on 3rd where Tannehill had to throw away the ball. Good recovery by Hawks D to stop that momentum by the Dolphins.
Seahawks drive: 0 first downs, punt
Bad, awful set of downs. I'm getting concerned again.
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
Thankfully the Seahawks D locks down agian
Seahawks drive: 4 first downs, Field Goal
Nice way to recoup some of that momentum from the previous 3 drives with a sustained drive and a field goal. Nice last catch by Luke Willson. I thought we might get a TD but with about 9 seconds looks like Russ took a quick look and then decided to throw out of bounds
END OF FIRST HALF
Miami receives
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
Nice way to open it up for the Hawks D
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, punt
Nice first down, thinking we got the momentum back. But the next set of downs Russ gets injured and it's going to be an obvious punt, esp after the sidearm pass on 3rd down and you can see Russ can't move. Nice job by the Dolphins too on the first down with the sack setting up a 2nd and 23.
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
The D is on lockdown, very reassuring
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, turnover on downs
Not a bad set of downs. We had another 3rd and short adn Rawls couldn't convert 3rd and 1 (surprisingly!!). 4th an inches is a screen to Baldwin that he gets hammered. Surprised we didn't try to run it again, I'm sure Rawls or Michaels would have gotten it. While the pass has been really good the first half, with Russ injured I think I would have gone run. Didn't like the playcall.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, punt
1st down was a result of penalty, late hit on Kam (questionable). Nice hurry on 3rd and 7 for a throwaway pass. So the Hawks D on this drive I thought did a great job again.
Seahawks drive: 2 first downs, turnover on fumble
One of the first downs was on a roughing the passer which extended the drive that I doubt we would have gotten a first. The next play after the roughing the passer is one of my favorites where Christine Michaels runs over 3 dolphins, leaving two of them slow to get up. So I'm thinking the Hawks got some momentum back but then we had the trip and fumble.
FOURTH QUARTER STARTS:
Dolphins drive: 2 first downs, blocked field goal
Another batted pass by Reed, blocked field goal by Marsh
Seahawks drive: 2 first downs, punt
Nice run by Rawls to carry the pack on a 2nd and 4 for the first down. The last set of downs Christine Michael had an 8 yard gain on 1st, but 2nd and 2 he slipped. 3rd and long he dropped a pass which was close to a first
Dolphins drive: 4 first downs, touchdown
This was ugly. The Dolphins first 4 plays were all first downs: pass to Stills, pass to Landry, another pass to Landry with NO pressure, and then a pitch and run to Williams that included a HUGE miss by Earl. The fifth play was an incompletion out of the endzone. Sixth play was the run by Tannehill for the touchdown. Really bad drive for the Hawks D, really good drive by the Dolphins
Seahawks drive: 4 first downs, touchdown
I think most of us have the details of this drive emblazoned in our memory
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, sack on 3rd to end the game
=== OVERALL THOUGHTS
* On my third viewing of this game, wow the Seahawks passed A LOT. The run was almost non-existent until Russell got injured.
* A few of the drives were just really horrible, the majority of them though were not bad to great. I fully expected them to convert the third downs on most of them and was surprised when they didn't. In my book that isn't necessarily bad as the Seahawks consistently set themselves up in some good position
* Following that, I remember on first and second viewing I thought for sure there were a lot more 3 and outs by the Dolphins and a lot more sustained drives by the Seahawks. Was surprised both teams had the same number of 3 and outs. Guessing my perception was skewed by a number of things: the first half all the Miami drives were either 0 first downs or 1 first downs while the Seahawks had two sustained drives. Also, the drives resulting in punts for the Seahawks some of them looked very close to converting, while I felt most of the Dolphins drives were not close at all.
* Fourth quarter collapse: wow. The Dolphins first two drives were scoring drives: a field goal attempt (yes blocked), and a touchdown. The Seahawks first two drives were non-scoring drives: a fumble, a punt (Michaels slips, Michaels drops a pass). That is a collapse
* Last observation: The difference between a good QB and an elite QB: separation is in the preparation. Not how you start, how you finish. After Tannehill scored his TD, the camera shots of him were all jovial and happy, as if they already won. There are 4 minutes left and the opposing team has time to drive. Maybe I'm a homer, but if the situation were reversed, I doubt you'd see Russell doing that. He'd be sitting and preparing for the next drive. Again could be homerism or just tainted perception, but the Tannehill that came out on the pentultimate drive to score the touchdown was focused, motivated, and willed his team to score. The Tannehill that came out for the last drive just didn't seem mentally ready for it, which corresponds well to those camera shots of him being jovial. Again situation reversed, I can easily picture Wilson after the TD score going back to his tablet and preparing for the next drive. And situation reversed, he comes out with 30 seconds to march down and score, I'm betting Russ does it.
Overall from the above, I can see that where my expectations were and that the Seahawks for the most part met them or exceeded them. I think that's why I am pretty high from this game and I think there's a good outlook. The things that stood out to worry me are still the same
1) Lockett's drops
2) Russell's injury
3) Earl: what the heck is he doing?
4) 4th quarter collapse by the D.
I think 1 and 2 will get right. 3? not sure. Remains to be seen but history tells me Earl will get right. 4? I think it will get right. Last year these collapses seemed to be a lot of miscommunication possibly as residual bad mojo from the Kam holdout. Not to mention the failure of Cary Williams. This time around, those aren't there. Kam looks good. And in place of Cary Williams we have Shead and Lane in there looking awesome. Add to that Simon is gone now and it looks like that secondary is really locked in to getting back to dominance.
Which means to me the 4th quarter miscommunication could almost all be related to 3) and be put on Earl's shoulders. If Earl gets right, I think the 4th quarter collapse by the D will also get right
I don't know how to calculate "sustained" drives, but I figure maybe an eye-test on each drive might yield something. So I started out by just counting how many drives were 3 and outs. How many drives were only 1 first down. And maybe we could see a bit more of the story. Because I was thinking first downs are huge momentum boosts, even if it doesn't end up in a touchdown
So these are my notes from re-watching again
Seahawks receive kick off
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, punt
Lockett bobbled passes on both 2nd and 3rd that likely would have been first downs, not a bad first drive, at least we got 1 first down
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, puntt
3 and out
Seahawks drive: 4 first downs, field goal
Too bad we couldn't score. Nice drive otherwise. The last set of downs Russell was sacked on the facemask non-call, but the facemask was inconsequential, Russell was not escaping anyway. So another good sustained drive which I thought was a good second drive, building upon some success in the first drive.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, turnover on downs:
This drive was the huge 3rd and 6 screen to Arian Foster due to the miscue by Marsh. Almost a reason to worry. But the next drive was the stop with 4th and inches by Kam which in my mind nullified the momentum by the Arian Foster screen.
Seahawks drive: 0 first downs, punt
We had a 3rd and short (3rd and 3) which we couldn't convert. Wasn't a good set of downs, not an entirely bad set of downs, I expected us to convert that 3rd and 3.
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
Another weird set of downs. First down was the big near-TD drop by Stills. What was Earl doing on this play? But the next two downs the Hawks D tightened up and forced the 3 and out
Seahawks drive: 0 first downs, turnover on interception
Horrible set of downs, and a very questionable decision by Russ to throw the ball. Disappointed because this drive and the last drive the momentum is turning the other way a bit.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, Field Goal
Really nice denial by Shead on 3rd and 5 to deny the 1st down so the Dolphins had to go for 3. I'm okay with it.
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, punt
Drive ended with another drop by Lockett on 3rd and 8 that was likely a first. Not bad, but starting to get concerned with Lockett's dropped passes.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, punt
1st down was from a really nice read option by Tannehill. He also didn't slide. opting to run for the 1st. Nice job by Tannehill. 2nd set of downs though included a batted pass by Reed on 2nd, a hurry by Avril on 3rd where Tannehill had to throw away the ball. Good recovery by Hawks D to stop that momentum by the Dolphins.
Seahawks drive: 0 first downs, punt
Bad, awful set of downs. I'm getting concerned again.
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
Thankfully the Seahawks D locks down agian
Seahawks drive: 4 first downs, Field Goal
Nice way to recoup some of that momentum from the previous 3 drives with a sustained drive and a field goal. Nice last catch by Luke Willson. I thought we might get a TD but with about 9 seconds looks like Russ took a quick look and then decided to throw out of bounds
END OF FIRST HALF
Miami receives
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
Nice way to open it up for the Hawks D
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, punt
Nice first down, thinking we got the momentum back. But the next set of downs Russ gets injured and it's going to be an obvious punt, esp after the sidearm pass on 3rd down and you can see Russ can't move. Nice job by the Dolphins too on the first down with the sack setting up a 2nd and 23.
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, punt
The D is on lockdown, very reassuring
Seahawks drive: 1 first down, turnover on downs
Not a bad set of downs. We had another 3rd and short adn Rawls couldn't convert 3rd and 1 (surprisingly!!). 4th an inches is a screen to Baldwin that he gets hammered. Surprised we didn't try to run it again, I'm sure Rawls or Michaels would have gotten it. While the pass has been really good the first half, with Russ injured I think I would have gone run. Didn't like the playcall.
Dolphins drive: 1 first down, punt
1st down was a result of penalty, late hit on Kam (questionable). Nice hurry on 3rd and 7 for a throwaway pass. So the Hawks D on this drive I thought did a great job again.
Seahawks drive: 2 first downs, turnover on fumble
One of the first downs was on a roughing the passer which extended the drive that I doubt we would have gotten a first. The next play after the roughing the passer is one of my favorites where Christine Michaels runs over 3 dolphins, leaving two of them slow to get up. So I'm thinking the Hawks got some momentum back but then we had the trip and fumble.
FOURTH QUARTER STARTS:
Dolphins drive: 2 first downs, blocked field goal
Another batted pass by Reed, blocked field goal by Marsh
Seahawks drive: 2 first downs, punt
Nice run by Rawls to carry the pack on a 2nd and 4 for the first down. The last set of downs Christine Michael had an 8 yard gain on 1st, but 2nd and 2 he slipped. 3rd and long he dropped a pass which was close to a first
Dolphins drive: 4 first downs, touchdown
This was ugly. The Dolphins first 4 plays were all first downs: pass to Stills, pass to Landry, another pass to Landry with NO pressure, and then a pitch and run to Williams that included a HUGE miss by Earl. The fifth play was an incompletion out of the endzone. Sixth play was the run by Tannehill for the touchdown. Really bad drive for the Hawks D, really good drive by the Dolphins
Seahawks drive: 4 first downs, touchdown
I think most of us have the details of this drive emblazoned in our memory
Dolphins drive: 0 first downs, sack on 3rd to end the game
=== OVERALL THOUGHTS
* On my third viewing of this game, wow the Seahawks passed A LOT. The run was almost non-existent until Russell got injured.
* A few of the drives were just really horrible, the majority of them though were not bad to great. I fully expected them to convert the third downs on most of them and was surprised when they didn't. In my book that isn't necessarily bad as the Seahawks consistently set themselves up in some good position
* Following that, I remember on first and second viewing I thought for sure there were a lot more 3 and outs by the Dolphins and a lot more sustained drives by the Seahawks. Was surprised both teams had the same number of 3 and outs. Guessing my perception was skewed by a number of things: the first half all the Miami drives were either 0 first downs or 1 first downs while the Seahawks had two sustained drives. Also, the drives resulting in punts for the Seahawks some of them looked very close to converting, while I felt most of the Dolphins drives were not close at all.
* Fourth quarter collapse: wow. The Dolphins first two drives were scoring drives: a field goal attempt (yes blocked), and a touchdown. The Seahawks first two drives were non-scoring drives: a fumble, a punt (Michaels slips, Michaels drops a pass). That is a collapse
* Last observation: The difference between a good QB and an elite QB: separation is in the preparation. Not how you start, how you finish. After Tannehill scored his TD, the camera shots of him were all jovial and happy, as if they already won. There are 4 minutes left and the opposing team has time to drive. Maybe I'm a homer, but if the situation were reversed, I doubt you'd see Russell doing that. He'd be sitting and preparing for the next drive. Again could be homerism or just tainted perception, but the Tannehill that came out on the pentultimate drive to score the touchdown was focused, motivated, and willed his team to score. The Tannehill that came out for the last drive just didn't seem mentally ready for it, which corresponds well to those camera shots of him being jovial. Again situation reversed, I can easily picture Wilson after the TD score going back to his tablet and preparing for the next drive. And situation reversed, he comes out with 30 seconds to march down and score, I'm betting Russ does it.
Overall from the above, I can see that where my expectations were and that the Seahawks for the most part met them or exceeded them. I think that's why I am pretty high from this game and I think there's a good outlook. The things that stood out to worry me are still the same
1) Lockett's drops
2) Russell's injury
3) Earl: what the heck is he doing?
4) 4th quarter collapse by the D.
I think 1 and 2 will get right. 3? not sure. Remains to be seen but history tells me Earl will get right. 4? I think it will get right. Last year these collapses seemed to be a lot of miscommunication possibly as residual bad mojo from the Kam holdout. Not to mention the failure of Cary Williams. This time around, those aren't there. Kam looks good. And in place of Cary Williams we have Shead and Lane in there looking awesome. Add to that Simon is gone now and it looks like that secondary is really locked in to getting back to dominance.
Which means to me the 4th quarter miscommunication could almost all be related to 3) and be put on Earl's shoulders. If Earl gets right, I think the 4th quarter collapse by the D will also get right
