Scottemojo":27hwu56t said:
The Percy Harvin effect is astounding. Wilson could have gone to him on the pass to Miller, Percy had the corner and safety beat. Harvin draws 2, if not 3 sets of eyes every play. Bevell has to have a gameplan that gets Percy 10 touches besides kick returns every week. Simply replacing the 65 or so touches to Golden would be a total failure, Percy needs to have double that plus some.
I'm guessing Pete might disagree with me, but in the games Harvin has played, in terms of weapons available to Wilson, Harvin feels like the true centerpiece on the offense. Lynch is important, but he does not open up the offense like Harvin does IMO, and does not generate the "cheese" yardage that Harvin can on screens and end-arounds. At least a few plays a game, Harvin is good for an automatic 8 yard gain.
The surprising fact about Lynch is he faced only the 19th highest "stack the box" rate in 2012 (2013 data is not yet available). I'm not trying to undersell Lynch, but I think he opens up the passing game a lot less than we were probably assuming. Harvin on the other hand, routinely opens up huge plays for other receivers by demanding safety help and double teams constantly. When Harvin is on the field, it is almost like having a 12th and 13th player on offense.
That "extra player" effect is the real value Harvin brings. I don't know if Harvin will see 130+ touches, but I do think that Seattle will want Harvin to be active enough in the offense that defenses are forced to obsess over him. And it's harder to obsess over Harvin if he's only a five touches a game player.
In 2012, Harvin was on pace for 120 receptions and 72 carries before the Seahawk game that year. Even in the Seahawk loss he managed 6 touches in half a game. No other receiver in the NFL was going to come even close to the total workload Harvin was on pace for that year, and that was with career year AP in the Vikings backfield. In a year when Adrian Peterson just missed having the best season ever by a RB, Harvin was still arguably the focal point of the offense until he got hurt.
I know that Seattle likes to spread the ball around and the chances of Harvin having a 192 touch season here are basically zero. But I think you bring up a great point about Seattle needing to at least try for that kind of workload. The Vikings were 6-2 while channeling their offense through Percy. With Christian Ponder at QB. Seeing Wilson constantly looking for Harvin in the first half was a very encouraging sign I thought.