CFP Predictions

[DomeHawk]

Chip Kelly and Herm Edwards don't scare me. Not too worried about Oregon either.

Y’all should be worried about your qb, your passing game and your pass rush. Not other teams. Uw is way overrated, just so the sec can say they beat a top 5 team after Auburn smashes them.

UW is not overrated, if you go by their season ending stats and the fact that they return 17 starters it is very reasonable that they are ranked where they are. That doesn't necessarily mean they are going to finish that high but the ranking isn't w/o enough facts to justify it.

If anyone should be worried about their own team it's Oregon. With a QB that has only been healthy enough to play 1/2 of the last two seasons, a coach who hasn't been able to win more than 33% of his games, and the 46th ranked defense, Oregon has more than enough of its own problems.

 

[schkoot]

They made it in 2016 with 1 loss to a good team. Why is 2018 different? Seems like we always assume that every team has to go undefeated to make the playoffs when in reality most teams that do make it are not.

We don't need to be undefeated to make the CFP, but a loss to the third best SEC team will savagely hurt our chances.

I haven't been this stressed out for a football game since SB XVLIII. Close against the Patriots, and close when the Huskies played Bama. But this is make or break on week 1, and that's a new and shitty feeling.

 

[DomeHawk]

I haven't been this stressed out for a football game since SB XVLIII.

I hear ya, easy to have high expectations when you are returning so many starters, especially at skill positions. That, and the fact that we have a very experienced OL bodes well for the offense. On defense we are generally regarded as having either the #1 or #2 defensive backfield in the nation. I am hoping that experience will be deciding factor in the first game of the season.

As for concerns, the talent composite shows Auburn as having the 8th best talent in the country and UDub as having the 24th best. Also, this will essentially be a home game for Auburn AND the time difference makes it a 10AM games for our Huskies, something that has never bode well for Seattle teams.

Do I have a prediction? Absolutely not, I tend to be overly optimistic w/my teams so I try to leave the prediction game alone. Anything could happen, a blow out (either way) or a close game seem just as likely in a first-game scenario.

I just hope it's not painful to watch, lol.

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Footb ... tComposite

 

[HawkGA]

Here are all the ESPN *Expert* picks.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... yoff-teams

One thing I'd like to highlight is that the PAC-12 makes an appearance in 25 of the 42 picks (I think I counted that right). By far UW is the lead PAC-12 team, though Stanford makes a few appearances and I think USC makes one. There are some crazy scenarios, like one person picks 2 teams from the ACC - that's not happening - and one person picks Michigan to win it all (that's Desmond Howard, not homerism going on there). The SEC gets two teams in for some picks and I think the Big-10 gets two teams in for some. But it just goes to support what I said above, that the PAC-12 has a tough road to hoe to get into the playoff. Not impossible, certainly, but their champion is by no means a lock.

 

[WmHBonney]

Sure other teams have had bad losses in the playoffs, but those other conferences have been there multiple times too. Heck, Clemson won it two years ago. Unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-12's only appearance has been with Washington (and yes, Washington's defense was stout in the game and they made it a lot more respectable than I expected, but that game was never really in doubt because their offense was smothered that game). So Washington is essentially battling uphill.

I don't disagree that this will be the mentality of many fans and maybe even some of those in charge of making decisions.

But that very reasoning is exactly why Washington should be let in. The Clemson and Ohio State losses prove that they can happen and are not indicative of a conference being weak. If Clemson and Ohio state have been given multiple chances, and proven that they can win it when given multiple chances, then so should Washington.

One P5 conference should never be rated higher than another. There is no valid statistics or science that prove that any one conference is better than another. If anything, the Pac-12 should be considered the hardest conference considering how few teams have statistically gone undefeated in conference play. What's there been, like 8 since it's entire history going pack to the Pac-8? Top to bottom, it's actually a really tough conference.

Show me just one expert that believes the P12 is stouter than the SEC, ACC or BIG10. That will never happen. Who decides which teams get in? "Experts". P12 is screwed.

 

[DomeHawk]

Sure other teams have had bad losses in the playoffs, but those other conferences have been there multiple times too. Heck, Clemson won it two years ago. Unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-12's only appearance has been with Washington (and yes, Washington's defense was stout in the game and they made it a lot more respectable than I expected, but that game was never really in doubt because their offense was smothered that game). So Washington is essentially battling uphill.

I don't disagree that this will be the mentality of many fans and maybe even some of those in charge of making decisions.

But that very reasoning is exactly why Washington should be let in. The Clemson and Ohio State losses prove that they can happen and are not indicative of a conference being weak. If Clemson and Ohio state have been given multiple chances, and proven that they can win it when given multiple chances, then so should Washington.

One P5 conference should never be rated higher than another. There is no valid statistics or science that prove that any one conference is better than another. If anything, the Pac-12 should be considered the hardest conference considering how few teams have statistically gone undefeated in conference play. What's there been, like 8 since it's entire history going pack to the Pac-8? Top to bottom, it's actually a really tough conference.

Show me just one expert that believes the P12 is stouter than the SEC, ACC or BIG10. That will never happen. Who decides which teams get in? "Experts". P12 is screwed.

"That will never happen." Were you born yesterday? The whole "best conference" thing is cyclic, I can remember times when the Pac was superior to ALL of those conferences.

 

[fenderbender123]

Sure other teams have had bad losses in the playoffs, but those other conferences have been there multiple times too. Heck, Clemson won it two years ago. Unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-12's only appearance has been with Washington (and yes, Washington's defense was stout in the game and they made it a lot more respectable than I expected, but that game was never really in doubt because their offense was smothered that game). So Washington is essentially battling uphill.

I don't disagree that this will be the mentality of many fans and maybe even some of those in charge of making decisions.

But that very reasoning is exactly why Washington should be let in. The Clemson and Ohio State losses prove that they can happen and are not indicative of a conference being weak. If Clemson and Ohio state have been given multiple chances, and proven that they can win it when given multiple chances, then so should Washington.

One P5 conference should never be rated higher than another. There is no valid statistics or science that prove that any one conference is better than another. If anything, the Pac-12 should be considered the hardest conference considering how few teams have statistically gone undefeated in conference play. What's there been, like 8 since it's entire history going pack to the Pac-8? Top to bottom, it's actually a really tough conference.

Show me just one expert that believes the P12 is stouter than the SEC, ACC or BIG10. That will never happen. Who decides which teams get in? "Experts". P12 is screwed.

I can't. But that doesn't mean they're right, which is my point. And also, Washington made it in before with 1 loss. Why not again?

 

[HawkGA]

Nobody is saying UW can't get in with one loss, just that the loss probably can't be against Auburn. The PAC-12 needs some extra juice to separate itself and get in.

 

[fenderbender123]

Nobody is saying UW can't get in with one loss, just that the loss probably can't be against Auburn. The PAC-12 needs some extra juice to separate itself and get in.

If Auburn finishes the season in the top 25, then a loss to them won't hurt them as much.

It's the shitty teams you don't want to lose to. That's what the CFB playoff committee looks at. A 1 loss Washington team who only lost to Auburn more than likely gets in.

The thing is, that it is unlikely Washington will go undefeated in conference play. That's a better argument for why we can't lose.

 

[DomeHawk]

Nobody is saying UW can't get in with one loss, just that the loss probably can't be against Auburn. The PAC-12 needs some extra juice to separate itself and get in.

If Auburn finishes the season in the top 25, then a loss to them won't hurt them as much.

It's the shitty teams you don't want to lose to. That's what the CFB playoff committee looks at. A 1 loss Washington team who only lost to Auburn more than likely gets in.

The thing is, that it is unlikely Washington will go undefeated in conference play. That's a better argument for why we can't lose.

I would have to agree with this, a loss against a top team isn't as relevant as a loss to a lesser team AND it has been my experience that losses early in the season aren't nearly as impactful as losses later in the season.

 

[HawkGA]

Well I'm not sure that yesterday could have gone worse for the Huskies and the PAC-12 in general.

You've already got the narrative of the PAC-12 not being an impressive conference. Here's a snippet from an ESPN article:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... ock-week-1

SELL: The Pac-12's playoff hopes

It's not just that Washington lost to Auburn. It's true that would've been a signature nonconference win for the league and for its best team, and it's also true the Huskies had their chances to pull off the victory. But it didn't happen, and now there's really not a clear chance to change the narrative the rest of the way. UCLA gets its shot at Oklahoma next week, but that's not likely to end well. Stanford faces off against Notre Dame in Week 5, making that essentially a must-win. The problem is there's already a storyline the Pac-12 needs to fight, and every missed opportunity looms larger and larger. Add in that Oklahoma looked great -- thus giving the Big 12 at least one likely playoff contender -- and it's already an uphill battle for the Pac-12, with few opportunities to take a big step forward.

On top of that, Notre Dame beat Michigan. That sucks for my personal prediction of Michigan making it to the playoffs but it also puts Notre Dame in the conversation. If we go back to the assumption the SEC champ, ACC champ, and Big-10 champ are all in, then fighting for the one remaining spot is: the Big-12 champ, the PAC-12 champ, a second SEC team, and Notre Dame.

Notre Dame just got a boost to at least stay relevant in that conversation for a while (I suspect I didn't even list them in my earlier post). The Big-12 outside of Oklahoma also looks like garbage, which increases the chance Oklahoma will be undefeated by the end of the year, making it hard to keep them out.

So essentially all of UW's competition took a step forward while UW took a step back. Still a long season to go, though.

 

[HawkGA]

Ouch.

The SEC is more likely to send multiple teams to the College Football Playoff (38%) than the Pac-12 is to get one or more in (25%), per ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/te ... imson-tide

 

[HawkGA]

Anybody want to update their predictions?

I have a hard time seeing the SEC get a second team in this year, but there does seem to be a strong consensus that Georgia is a top 3 team. But if you figure Alabama and Georgia square off in the SEC championship game, I have a hard time seeing the loser of that game getting into the playoffs. Could happen, but I just don't think it will. You will have effectively had a playoff game and one team lost.

I think Notre Dame has a legit shot. I've long thought they wouldn't make it, but I think they might win out and if they do, their in. I don't know if they are a top 4 team, but an undefeated Notre Dame is getting in the playoffs.

Clemson looks like the most likely of the other conference champions to lose just because of some of the disruption at quarterback.

So that leaves Oklahoma and Ohio State. Ohio State presumably has the tougher road and could theoretically survive a loss, so long as that loss doesn't keep them out of the conference championship.

 

[KitsapGuy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1046932024521560065[/tweet]

 

[HawkGA]

Kentucky in the Peach? Holy crap!

 

[DomeHawk]

Kentucky in the Peach? Holy crap!

Notre Dame has a clear path to the CFP. At this point I don't think Clemson belongs, but they also have a pretty easy path to the CFP.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Alabama isn't losing to anyone. They are in.

Clemson has a cakewalk to the CFP. The ACC is awful. Their only test will be Miami in the ACC championship, assuming Miami gets there. They are in.

With a win over Penn State, I think Ohio St is in. Their only tough remaining game is at Michigan State which I expect them to win. They will beat Harbough at home. Even if they lose one game I think they are in with how strong their schedule is. If UW can make it with one loss, a team like Ohio St can definitely make it with one loss. Only way we get in over a big 10 team is if the big 10 teams all have two losses. Ohio St should make it.

The team thay I think will spoil our chance at making it is Notre Dame. The move from Wimbush to Book was huge. Book looks like a great QB. They have an easy schedule and they likely go undefeated.

Then you still have the three other SEC teams, Georgia, LSU and Auburn. They will beat up on each other, so some of them will fall out of contention at some point. I think Auburn is done as they already lost to LSU and have to play at Georgia and Alabama. LSU is fortunate to have home games against both Georgia and Alabama. If they can win one of those I think they could make a strong case for making it.

Big12 has Oklahoma and WVU who are very much still in it. With how weak that conference is, I think they will need to go undefeated to make it. The last game of the season WVU hosts Oklahoma, that game could decide it. I don't see any of those teams going undefeated and don't see a Big12 team making it.

I just don't see a clear path for UW. We really needed that win against Auburn. If it is between UW and another team from the SEC or Big10 with one win, they will take them. Hopefully someone like Clemson just has a really bad game somewhere and loses, same with Notre Dame. Not likely, but could happen.

 

[HawkGA]

The Big 12 has a championship game now, right? I wonder if we could get Oklahoma-WVU followed by Okalhoma-WVU?

 

[DomeHawk]

Alabama isn't losing to anyone. They are in.

Clemson has a cakewalk to the CFP. The ACC is awful. Their only test will be Miami in the ACC championship, assuming Miami gets there. They are in.

With a win over Penn State, I think Ohio St is in. Their only tough remaining game is at Michigan State which I expect them to win. They will beat Harbough at home. Even if they lose one game I think they are in with how strong their schedule is. If UW can make it with one loss, a team like Ohio St can definitely make it with one loss. Only way we get in over a big 10 team is if the big 10 teams all have two losses. Ohio St should make it.

The team thay I think will spoil our chance at making it is Notre Dame. The move from Wimbush to Book was huge. Book looks like a great QB. They have an easy schedule and they likely go undefeated.

Then you still have the three other SEC teams, Georgia, LSU and Auburn. They will beat up on each other, so some of them will fall out of contention at some point. I think Auburn is done as they already lost to LSU and have to play at Georgia and Alabama. LSU is fortunate to have home games against both Georgia and Alabama. If they can win one of those I think they could make a strong case for making it.

Big12 has Oklahoma and WVU who are very much still in it. With how weak that conference is, I think they will need to go undefeated to make it. The last game of the season WVU hosts Oklahoma, that game could decide it. I don't see any of those teams going undefeated and don't see a Big12 team making it.

I just don't see a clear path for UW. We really needed that win against Auburn. If it is between UW and another team from the SEC or Big10 with one win, they will take them. Hopefully someone like Clemson just has a really bad game somewhere and loses, same with Notre Dame. Not likely, but could happen.

Excellent breakdown, the irony that we got in last time with our "3-cupcakes," as ESPN put it, and probably won't with only 1-cupcake, shouldn't be lost on anyone. (Of course, that is all supposition, we still have plenty of tough games ahead.)

 

[HawkGA]

Well Oklahoma stunk up the joint. I'm still hopeful of an Ohio State loss along the way somewhere. Looking more like an SEC, Big-10, Notre Dame and then wild card (pencil Clemson in for now, but we'll see).