jlwaters1":3v43r2rc said:
Popeyejones":3v43r2rc said:
I think three things are happening on this list:
1) Russell Wilson is getting penalized by recency bias.
2) Russell Wilson is no longer getting the ascendancy bump.
3) Wilson is now getting dinged for seeming to not be a good fit in every offense.
ON #1:
Seahawks fans have a ton of reasons for it, but last year Wilson played the full season and was #10 in yards, #7 in YPA, #17 in TDs, #16 in INTs, and #14 in QB rating.
Average across those five standard QB stats he was the 13th best QB in the NFL.
Basically, I suspect that Hawks fans note that he was playing injured and the line was bad and want to move him up from 13th to 5th or 6th, whereas professional evaluators in the NFL take these things and move him up to 10.
ON #2:
Wilson is 28 now and is going into his sixth season as a full-time starter. I don't know if it's wise or fair or not, but he's no longer getting the "still improving" bump that young QBs get.
Last year also really changed opinions of Wilson, as people, for the first time, got to see him trying to carry his team without an all-world defense and all-world running game. I know Hawks fans have reasons for this, but he didn't do too well in that role, which is one of the reasons the Hawks have been adamant about returning to a run-first offense.
ON #3:
I've posted a lot about this before and will spare the details, but folks have been waiting for Wilson to develop into a player that can use the pocket and manipulate the pocket like all the other Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs, and that just hasn't happened yet. Even this pre-season he has still been doing the same stuff that drives a lot of offensive coordinators and coaches batty.
PERSONALLY, as I've said before, I still think he'll have a Roethlisberger-like career trajectory (going from being a very good QB to a top 5 QB in his 30s as he finally settles down behind the LOS and learns how to use his blocking to his advantage), but as for right now I think this ranking makes sense (caveat: EVEN THOUGH I think he'll be higher than #10 by the end of this year).
1) Sorry but I believe your a bit off-base. PC has described his offensive philosophy as "run-first". PC has been saying this for years- he wants BALANCE on offense. The league has shifted so far to a passing game that when Seattle wants to run it 50% of the time it's labeled as "run-first.
2) On another point RW's stock actually up with outside critics because he was carrying the team last year.
He showed a lot of grit last season.
3) As for Ryan being in Tier 1, it's weird that they are rewarding him so much for 1 tremendous year. He needs to prove he can do it more than 1 year to be in that conversation IMO. Look at Cam Newton had a great year only to come back down last year.
Just as a reminder, that post was trying to figure out the thought process that caused professional evaluaters to rank him lower than most here think he should be. It wasn't me arguing that he should be that low (i.e. at the end of my post I say what I think -- I understand why he is where he is but think he'll be higher on that list by the end of this year).
As for your three points (which I numbered in the quote of you for clarity):
1) When I suggest that PC has called for a return to running the ball more after last season, I'm relying on what PC has said and on the simple numbers.
For him talking about it see here:
http://www.oregonlive.com/nfl/index.ssf ... ll_16.html
As for the numbers, last year was the first year Wilson threw over 500 passes in a season (about 65 more passes than he threw the year before which was his previous high -- about two full games worth of passes), and was also the first year in his tenure that the Seahawks threw more than they ran.
There's not really much debate, as PC said they want to get back to running more, and last year they passed more and ran less than they have ever done during his tenure. These are both statements of fact and there's nothing to debate about them.
2) If Wilson is ranked more highly by outside evaluators after last year than before last year is hard to prove (either way), but I think it's a hard argument to make. This ranking by 50 outside evaluators that places him at #10 seems like good evidence that he might have fallen for many after last year (unless you think people had him lower than 10 before last year, which I don't quite buy). Again, I'm not saying he's *really* the 10th best (I think he's higher). For the outside evaluators I've heard talk about it (Robert Mays, who loves Wilson as a player and the Seahawks as a team), he said Wilson fell for him last year for the reasons I stated (which are reasons I agree with).
3) I didn't make any claims about Matt Ryan and where he should be, but I think the league MVP from the previous season is going to get slotted into the top tier of his position 100 out of 100 times to start the next season. It doesn't mean he'll stay there, but that was kinda my point about Wilson getting dinged for "recency bias", but working in the other direction for Ryan.
EDIT: and just for anyone who is reading who thinks I'm bashing Wilson, I'm not, and I've even been putting my money where my mouth is. Fantasy Football isn't realy football obviously but I've been drafting Wilson in all of my money leagues because I think he's a little undervalued right now and is poised to have a very big year.
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