Report: Jimmy Graham

[scrummymustard]

Projected to be $10,001,000 in 2018

I've said it on a few different threads, but to tag Graham is $15.48 million.

The tag rule is the HIGHER of
1. the franchise tag amount (will be around $10 mil) OR
2. 120% of the prior years cap hit.

However, he is on the same contract from the saints, it was just merely transferred to the hawks. Therefore, you have to go off what his cap hit would have been if he stayed w/ the saints, so you include his proration of the signing bonus (total $12 million or $3 million a year prorated) received when he signed the deal.

Also, for the franchise tag calculation, the work out bonus gets added out....therefore, his 2016 salary was $9.9 million ($7.9 mil base salary + $2 million roster bonus received in March 2016) + $3 million signing bonus proration = $12.9 million * 120% = $15.48 million to tag.

Basically, his cap hit if he was still on the saints would have been $13 million in 2016 (minus $100k workout bonus to get to the $12.9 million for tag purposes).... so that is how you get to the $15.48 million.

He's already the highest paid TE in the league. I think his production is good, others seem to think that he's the worst player to put on a Seahawks jersey. The question is, who is going to give Jimmy anymore money? He leads the league in TD's at TE, but the rest of his stats are mid pack with #1 TE's. He is also significantly older than the top 5 highest TE's under contract for next year.

I don't think anyone is going to come in and offer him more than what he gets now. He's paid nearly a million more than the next highest paid TE. I could see a 3 or 4 year deal at 25 to 35mm.

Oh the Hawks definitely won't franchise him, no chance at $15+ mil. I don't understand all of the hate for Graham, he was #2 in the entire league in receiving TDs, 1st for TEs, produced for this team and owns literally all of the TE records for the hawks in what amounts to only 2.5 seasons of work. We basically took away 3 years of his prime, while asking him do what he doesn't excel at, and he never once complained. I will acknowledge the more drops than usual this year, but we lose more games than we win this year with Graham not on this team

Joeckel got paid nearly $8 million, missed 5 games, really didn't improve the offensive line and he kinda just gets a pass. Our lack of run game has significantly more to do with our OL than with a non blocking TE.

Teams I think that would go after him would be the Falcons, Packers, Niners, Texans, saints, patriots? I'm sure I'm missing a few.

I'm sure there will be plenty of interest, and you are probably right about the money he'll get, but ya never know with free agency. Considering the amount of available cap space out there is more than ever before seen, it could push it higher but who really knows.

Frankly, the TE market is some of the best bang for your buck because the values havent risen on par with the rise in the cap. The TE market is still stuck in 2014, where as mostly all other positions, besides RB, have grown considerably.


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[original poster]

They can part ways with Joeckel and Lacy. There's the money to re-sign Jimmy G right there. They have plenty of money to sign Jimmy G if they desire to do so. I hope they do.

Lacy, Joeckel and Willson were on 1 year deals so they have no cap hit in 2018 so that doesn’t work unfortunately.

 

[original poster]

Also, OTC has a Jimmy Graham franchise tag at $10.36M for 2018.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.

Personally, I think Graham leaving will allow Vannett to reach his potential. That guy can block AND make clutch catches.

 

[original poster]

He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.

Personally, I think Graham leaving will allow Vannett to reach his potential. That guy can block AND make clutch catches.

Exactly.

It’s exactly moves like this that let another player shine.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

Not to mention, there are some solid young free-agents on the market. For the price of Graham we could have:

Jonathan Cooper (G) Dallas
James Hurst (RT) Baltimore
Mike Tolbert (FB) Buff
Jarvis Landry (WR) Miami


We should SERIOUSLY target Cooper and Tolbert. They would likely change our running in a hurry.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Hell yes, the line and the running game has to be priority #1

 

[Popeyejones]

Gonna be hillarious if 49ers sign him and he shreds the seahawks with jimmy G and shanahan.

Wow never thought of that....it actually could happen. Maybe we can get George Kittle.......

Get George Kittle how? He played really well and will be on the second year of rookie deal that's paying him around 700K annually. Save for a career ending injury there's no scenario in which the 9ers would cut him.

As for Graham, I'm hoping the 9ers don't go after him.

He's *always* been overrated IMO, and like every other pass catcher who has traveled through New Orleans he has name recognition mostly because he benefited from the Payton/Brees bump.

But if last offseason is any indication, I think John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan don't really know what they're doing in free agency, and I could see them going after him and overspending for him.

 

[scrummymustard]

Also, OTC has a Jimmy Graham franchise tag at $10.36M for 2018.

It is $15.48 million to tag him.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

No, it is not. It's a little over 10 million for a Tight End in 2018.

 

[Popeyejones]

He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.

Yep, receiving TDs are incredibly high variance. Paying a guy because he caught a lot of TDs is just a horrible idea.

Jimmy just basically put up a season like Julius Thomas did in Denver in 2014.

Someone is gonna be dumb and pay for that as based on the misguided idea that receiving TDs are consistent across years, but they don't.

 

[scrummymustard]

No, it is not. It's a little over 10 million for a Tight End.

OMG. Yes the tight end tag will be a little over $10 million, but for Graham it will be $15.48 million. I am 100% positive

Read my post above as well as the Collective Bargaining Agreement. it is the HIGHER of:

1. The franchise tag amount OR
2. 120% of the prior years cap hit

Graham 2016 cap hit....$10 million, however remove the workout bonus as it is not included in the calculation......

$9.9 salary + $3 million signing bonus proration = 12.9 * 120% = $15.48 million > $10 mil TE tag amount.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

ok

 

[Scorpion05]

Although this year was our worst, it was also a revelation in some ways. This year was the first time I actually felt CONFIDENT when we got into the Red Zone. I'm sorry, but that is a premium. We used to struggle in the redzone plenty and people used to question whether Russell or Bevell were capable of solving it

With a running game, I think we'd have a high red zone conversion rate. Keep Graham. Even in the Cowboys game, our conversions in the Redzone is not the kind of thing we would have seen in years past. Defenses would be stressed having to worry about a great running back, Angry Doug, Russell Wilson keeping it, AND Jimmy. You don't let that go. I'd let P-Rich go wayyyyy before I let go Jimmy

Jimmy is still a great talent, we just have to use him properly. That's more an indictment on Bevell than anything else

 

[scrummymustard]

He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.

Yep, receiving TDs are incredibly high variance. Paying a guy because he caught a lot of TDs is just a horrible idea.

Jimmy just basically put up a season like Julius Thomas did in Denver in 2014.

Someone is gonna be dumb and pay for that as based on the misguided idea that receiving TDs are consistent across years, but they don't.

ummmmm, he's had TD seasons of 11, 9, 16, 10 & 10. He's consistently shown he can put up high receiving TD numbers. Comparing him to a Julius Thomas is disingenuous.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Gonna be hillarious if 49ers sign him and he shreds the seahawks with jimmy G and shanahan.

Tight Ends don't do a whole lot in Shanahan's offense.

The division foe we should be worried about is the team that just won the division. McVay loves his TE's and mixing Graham into the fold with Gurley, Watkins, Woods, etc... yikes.

My money is on him going to Houston, but we'll see.

 

[Scorpion05]

Gonna be hillarious if 49ers sign him and he shreds the seahawks with jimmy G and shanahan.

Wow never thought of that....it actually could happen. Maybe we can get George Kittle.......

Get George Kittle how? He played really well and will be on the second year of rookie deal that's paying him around 700K annually. Save for a career ending injury there's no scenario in which the 9ers would cut him.

As for Graham, I'm hoping the 9ers don't go after him.

He's *always* been overrated IMO, and like every other pass catcher who has traveled through New Orleans he has name recognition mostly because he benefited from the Payton/Brees bump.

But if last offseason is any indication, I think John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan don't really know what they're doing in free agency, and I could see them going after him and overspending for him.

Kyle Shanahan would utilize Jimmy into a 15 Td, 1000 yard season. He has elevated lesser talent. He'd work wonders with Jimmy, Hyde, and Jimmy GQ

 

[scrummymustard]

Nope

Cool. Well if you want to get your head out of the sand and read the CBA, I'll even give you the specific section.

NFL CBA:
ARTICLE 10 "FRANCHISE AND TRANSITION PLAYERS" - section 2 (a)(i)

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I'll believe what John Clayton says would be the cap hit to sign him, he's always on top of this stuff.

 

[Popeyejones]

He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.

Yep, receiving TDs are incredibly high variance. Paying a guy because he caught a lot of TDs is just a horrible idea.

Jimmy just basically put up a season like Julius Thomas did in Denver in 2014.

Someone is gonna be dumb and pay for that as based on the misguided idea that receiving TDs are consistent across years, but they don't.

ummmmm, he's had TD seasons of 11, 9, 16, 10 & 10. He's consistently shown he can put up high receiving TD numbers. Comparing him to a Julius Thomas is disingenuous.

And...

(1) He's also had TD seasons, of 6, 5, and 2, which you're leaving out because to acknowledge them would mean he's not as consistent as you'd like to pretend he is.

(2) Four of the five seasons you listed for him were when he was on the Saints and benefited from the Peyton/Brees effect that makes all pass catchers look better than they were. To reach those numbers again you'd also have to nearly double his target totals since he has been on the Seahawks.

I mean, heck, even Brandin Cooks was down this year from his previous two years because he was stuck playing with Tom Brady instead of Bree's in Peyton's Air Coryell offense. :lol:

3) Regarding the Julius Thomas comp, he had back-to-back 12 TD seasons because he got to play with Peyton in that offense, and because he got unsustainably lucky on TDs.

In 2014 Julius Thomas he had 12 TDs on 489 yards receiving total. This year Graham had 10 TDs on 520 receiving yards. It's like when Eifert had 13 TDs on 600 receiving yards in 2015.

These types of TD %s for pass catchers never have been, and never will be, sustainable across years. It's just not the way it works.