Seahawks at Niners 11/11...

[Washington49er]

NFL is all about scheme, on any Sunday anyone can beat you. It is how your weakness matches up to the strengths and vice-versa. This talk about the Bucs took us to OT means nothing. Wins are hard, hell AZ ran out of time on TNF. Then again AZ has had the 49ers number for years now, so it really was no surprise.

AZ is a better team than TB.

No.

Not a perfect science of course, but Seattle toyed with AZ in Glendale before thrashing them and Tampa gave Seattle fits in Seattle. The eye test alone tells you Tampa is better.

Tampa has had some really tough breaks and close games. They are much better than their record may indicate.

TB is 2-6, AZ not the same team Hawks played earlier this season.

 

[Fanatics]

On paper this should be a blowout:

49ers:
7th offense - 3rd scoring
1st defense - 2nd scoring

Seahawks:
4th offense - 6th scoring
25 defense - 22nd scoring

But it is a division game, so all statistics are thrown out the door. Anything could happen, the keys to the game will be Seattle stopping the run and protecting Wilson. If they can do that, we can win.

 

[knownone]

NFL is all about scheme, on any Sunday anyone can beat you. It is how your weakness matches up to the strengths and vice-versa. This talk about the Bucs took us to OT means nothing. Wins are hard, hell AZ ran out of time on TNF. Then again AZ has had the 49ers number for years now, so it really was no surprise.

AZ is a better team than TB.

No.

Not a perfect science of course, but Seattle toyed with AZ in Glendale before thrashing them and Tampa gave Seattle fits in Seattle. The eye test alone tells you Tampa is better.

Tampa has had some really tough breaks and close games. They are much better than their record may indicate.

TB is 2-6, AZ not the same team Hawks played earlier this season.

TB was a handful of plays from being 6-2. They are flawed because their pass defense isn't great, but they are better than Arizona in just about every metric. I mean, they have the 4th best offense in the league, and the best run defense. Arizona's offense is ranked 19th, their run defense is ranked 23rd, and their pass defense?????? ranked dead last.

Keep in mind, the Bucs absolutely dominated the Niners offense, and it took 4 (yes 4) turnovers for the Niners to take control of that game.

 

[Washington49er]

AZ is a better team than TB.

No.

Not a perfect science of course, but Seattle toyed with AZ in Glendale before thrashing them and Tampa gave Seattle fits in Seattle. The eye test alone tells you Tampa is better.

Tampa has had some really tough breaks and close games. They are much better than their record may indicate.

TB is 2-6, AZ not the same team Hawks played earlier this season.

TB was a handful of plays from being 6-2. They are flawed because their pass defense isn't great, but they are better than Arizona in just about every metric. I mean, they have the 4th best offense in the league, and the best run defense. Arizona's offense is ranked 19th, their run defense is ranked 23rd, and their pass defense?????? ranked dead last.

Keep in mind, the Bucs absolutely dominated the Niners offense, and it took 4 (yes 4) turnovers for the Niners to take control of that game.

So based on your logic, what does that say for the Hawks record?

 

[Fanatics]

No.

Not a perfect science of course, but Seattle toyed with AZ in Glendale before thrashing them and Tampa gave Seattle fits in Seattle. The eye test alone tells you Tampa is better.

Tampa has had some really tough breaks and close games. They are much better than their record may indicate.

TB is 2-6, AZ not the same team Hawks played earlier this season.

TB was a handful of plays from being 6-2. They are flawed because their pass defense isn't great, but they are better than Arizona in just about every metric. I mean, they have the 4th best offense in the league, and the best run defense. Arizona's offense is ranked 19th, their run defense is ranked 23rd, and their pass defense?????? ranked dead last.

Keep in mind, the Bucs absolutely dominated the Niners offense, and it took 4 (yes 4) turnovers for the Niners to take control of that game.

So based on your logic, what does that say for the Hawks record?

I personally would say that TB is the better team with the better coach. AZ has a ton of potential but they are very young and they just do not know how to win yet. TB is a QB away from a crazy offense with those two WR's and two young RB's...nobody matches up with those WR's, as they are both big and long, with mitts as hands.

With that said going back to an earlier post, you cannot judge a team vs team based on common opponents. It is impossible to measure teams strengths and weaknesses as they play each other, as a common opponent. Looking at the games, one could surmise that we match up with AZ better than TB and the 49ers the opposite.

 

[knownone]

On paper this should be a blowout:

49ers:
7th offense - 3rd scoring
1st defense - 2nd scoring

Seahawks:
4th offense - 6th scoring
25 defense - 22nd scoring

But it is a division game, so all statistics are thrown out the door. Anything could happen, the keys to the game will be Seattle stopping the run and protecting Wilson. If they can do that, we can win.

On paper, the Seahawks look like a bad matchup for the Niners.

Seahawks Offense:
2nd in scoring efficiency.
5th in rushing
1st in passing

Niners Offense:
13th in scoring efficiency
3rd in rushing
15th in passing

Seahawks Defense:
22nd in scoring
14th in passing
9th in rushing (non QB)

Niners Defense:
2nd in scoring
2nd in passing
23rd in rushing (non QB)

The key here is run defense. Seattle's run defense looks bad because of mobile QBs (Lamar Jackson), but they've largely shut down teams who rely on their RBs for rushing yards. They give up just under 4 YPC to RBs and when you adjust for outliers that number goes down to 3.6 YPC. The 49ers offense is built on their ability to run the ball, so if Seattle's numbers against RBs hold up, they can effectively make Garappolo be the deciding factor.

On the flip side, the Niners aren't particularly good at stopping the run. They give up 4.5 YPC to RBs, and their adjusted numbers only bring them to 4.3 YPC. Meaning, (on paper) Seattle should be able to run the ball. On top of that, Seattle's offense is not really predicated on the success of one aspect of their game; they've shown they can beat you with the pass or run.

This match is all about the Niner's front 7 against the Hawk's OL. If the Niners front 7 can dominate this game, then it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Hawks win. If they can't... It's going to be Jimmy G vs Russell Wilson.

 

[Ramfan128]

2-5 Bucs take the Hawks to overtime at the Clink. Hmmm.

And they dropped 55 on the Rams. So?

Rams aint $h!t this year.

I was just surprised, don't get your panties in a bunch.

Weird comment. There are some metrics that paint the Rams as better than the Seahawks, the biggest one for me is a better point differential against a more difficult schedule.

But even putting that aside - the Rams/Seahawks game came down to a missed field goal, so the two teams thus far are just about even.

We laid eggs against the Bucs and Niners, but I'm thinking those were outliers.

 

[knownone]

No.

Not a perfect science of course, but Seattle toyed with AZ in Glendale before thrashing them and Tampa gave Seattle fits in Seattle. The eye test alone tells you Tampa is better.

Tampa has had some really tough breaks and close games. They are much better than their record may indicate.

TB is 2-6, AZ not the same team Hawks played earlier this season.

TB was a handful of plays from being 6-2. They are flawed because their pass defense isn't great, but they are better than Arizona in just about every metric. I mean, they have the 4th best offense in the league, and the best run defense. Arizona's offense is ranked 19th, their run defense is ranked 23rd, and their pass defense?????? ranked dead last.

Keep in mind, the Bucs absolutely dominated the Niners offense, and it took 4 (yes 4) turnovers for the Niners to take control of that game.

So based on your logic, what does that say for the Hawks record?

That strawman works both ways; for instance, based on your logic the Bills are one of the 5 best teams in the NFL, and the Patriots have the greatest defense of all time. Unfortunately, reality does not exist in a vacuum where all things are relative, so looking at one metric ( in this case, wins) to determine the relative strength of a team is a sort of silly way to formulate an argument. That's not to say your opinion is any more wrong than mine or anyone else, it's just that this is a sports forum and you are not going to convince anyone of your position with that level of analysis.

 

[Ramfan128]

Niners stand alone as last undefeated team...

...yet I totally admit that Russell Wilson should be the MVP and he scares the crap out of me. LOL.

NO IDEA what to expect next Monday Night.

I've been right about some things and wrong about some things this year...

But I can't imagine Seattle winning in San Francisco unless the Niners defense isn't actually as good as they've performed.

 

[Marvin49]

Gotta say....one of my pet peeves is people comparing/discrediting wins.

IE, well "Tampa is better than the Cards, its a more impressive win", or "This wasn't the same Tampa Team you faced".

There are zero right answers here.

Its all fluff. If the 49ers played the Cards 10 times, my guess is the Niners would win more than 50% of the time, but the score would be different every single time. Things change play to play, matchups are different from play to play.

Yes, Niner O struggled in Tampa....in 95 degree heat, crazy humidity, and Jimmy Gs first game back after ACL tear. Does that make the win any more or less impressive than Seattles win over Tampa yesterday?

Every situation is different. They cannot be compared.

I just look at these two teams perceived strengths and weaknesses and try to draw some correlation to reality, but its all just folly. If the Seahawks call the right play at the right time, catch the 49ers D out of position and Chris Carson has a head of steam barreling downhill at Jimmie Ward, bad stuff is probably going to happen for Ward and the 49ers.

This stuff changes from play to play.

 

[Marvin49]

Niners stand alone as last undefeated team...

...yet I totally admit that Russell Wilson should be the MVP and he scares the crap out of me. LOL.

NO IDEA what to expect next Monday Night.

I've been right about some things and wrong about some things this year...

But I can't imagine Seattle winning in San Francisco unless the Niners defense isn't actually as good as they've performed.

49er D is very good vs the Pass and their pass rush might be the best in the NFL, but they have a weak spot in the run game.

This is why I think Seattle has a good chance. Wilson can beat a good pass D and Carson will get some yards on the ground.

The question to me is can Seattle stop SF on O. I'm not trying to answer that as we won't know till Monday.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The question to me is can Seattle stop SF on O. I'm not trying to answer that as we won't know till Monday.

Umm that'd be a big negative ghostrider.

So far our defense has given just about every QB we've faced a career day passing. So if this is a game the Hawks win, it's going to have to be something similar to what we saw yesterday, a shootout that luck gives us the last possession so Russell can work his late game magic.

My gut says Niners win, something like 35-24. I just don't think Russell's going to be lights out like he's been because of how good the Niners front seven is. Too many 3 and outs, too many sacks, too many throw aways cause of pressure for us to keep up in a shootout.

Maybe the Niners offense or special teams gifts us a couple turnovers to keep it closer, but this is how I see the game going.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

9ers seems better on paper, a yuge win if Hawks pull out an upset.


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The teams are almost exactly even on paper. Seahawks have better WRs and linebackers, the 49ers everywhere else, except quarterback, where Seattle has a huge advantage (if Wilson was on the 49ers they’d be on their way to 19-0). Additionally, I think Seattle has a slight special teams advantage. If I were betting and not wearing homer glasses, I’d bet on Seattle with only one caveat: the potential for home field advantage.

 

[Fanatics]

The Cards might of exposed something for us but I don't see us taking advantage of it because of our style. The hurry-up offense showed the 49ers to be vulnerable but at our core, we play to control the clock which would seem to not go together. Will be interesting to see if we try to take advantage of this new found knowledge. I believe the 49ers want to play the same way, ball control! Interesting game and I can't get a handle yet.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

So I typically go to the other teams board to post something like this, so I'll go ahead and do so here.

Usually I'd post about the Niners this year in general, but really not all that necessary as we've had that conversation about 100 times already. I'll just post about what I'll have my eyes on and what I think I think.

When Seahawks have the Ball:

1) The 49ers are the #1 ranked Defense in the NFL vs the Pass and were the most efficient pass rushing team in the NFL before last week (I haven't seen the numbers including the Cardinals game). The pass rush has suffocated passing games all year and allowed 100 yards or less in 4 straight games.

Having said all that, they haven't faced Russell Wilson or anything close to him. The Cards exposed that pass D a bit my spreading the field and running tempo, so will be curious to see if the Seahawks do the same. That's also a possible offshoot of the short turnaround on a Thursday Night on the road, but it bears watching for sure.

I have absolute confidence that Wilson will get pressured and probably sacked on a few occasions, but the dude is Houdini. I fully expect Bosa to have him dead to rights, he spins away from the sack, he rolls out, and somehow a WR is open by 10-15 yards 50 yards downfield. I've just seen it happen way too often. He's playing out of his mind this year and I won't lie, the dude scares the crap out of me.


2) The 49ers have been vulnerable all season to gash runs. It seems there is always a sequence that they'll give up big chunk yards in the run game. I haven't quite figured out why, but there are a number of possible culprits. Wide 9. Light but fast LBs. Stop the run on the way to the QB.

They also are susceptible to screens.

When the 49ers have the Ball:

1) You know they are gonna run it. Something of a statistical oddity, the 49ers and Seahawks run D ranks are almost identical. They are ranked 13th and 14th vs the run and give up an identical 4.7 yards per rush. The 49ers will run the ball A LOT regardless of whether they are having luck with it. Shanahan is stubborn that way.

2) My guess is that the Seahawks will sell out to stop that run and force Jimmy G to beat them. I mean, that's what I'D do. Strangely enough, through 3 seasons, the Seahawks have only seen Jimmy as a QB for a single drive. He looked great against the Cards, but I'd expect his customary one WTF throw that he seems to have in almost every game, and largely look very efficient in short to medium ranges. I wouldn't expect him to go deep with any regularity.


Injuries:

We'll see who is actually back, but I'd expect Staley, Juszczyk, and Witherspoon back, and possibly McGlinchey.

Kwon Alexander is HUGE. That one really hurts. One thing on him though...he has been in the game when they have been gashed in the run game. He was so fast and all over the field, but he was susceptible to the run. It will be interesting to see if him being out hurts or harms them. The dude is a great player, so not trying to say it isn't a blow, but curious to see what happens in that specific aspect.

In his stead you will probably see a lot of Dre Greenlaw who played will in preseason and some Azeez Al-Shaair, whom I actually really like, but is also undersized and raw.

This matchup reminds me of the old Joe Montana vs Steve Bartowski days (SF vs Atlanta - back when Atlanta was in the NFC west). Back then Joe would be Russel and Bartowski would be Jimmy from a mobility standpoint. :mrgreen:

Having said that, I think being at home, the 49ers are going to test that Seattle Secondary and if the 'Hawks are going to defend the run - Kyle's going to call some play action passes that might just gash them severely to back off on the run. Might as well use home field advantage for something.

As for the 49er defense, agree - Greenlaw and Azeez will be tested. If I was Pete and Shottenheimer, those two rookies - Greenlaw and Azeez would be the guys I would scheme to attack. A great staple to attacking the 4-3 under would be misdirection and play action passes. Because of the 49er pass rush, I'd move Russell on designed moving pockets, roll outs, QB keepers, and the like. I'd really call a lot of run plays to neutralize that 49er pass rush and force the 49er weak spot in run defense to adjust and have them thinking run when Shottenheimer will call a play action pass deep to Lockett or DK.

I think this game will be much closer than what Vegas has a line on. It could be decided on the last play of the last drive of the game. :shock: :?: :?

They may change it for this game, but for the record the 49ers haven’t used under fronts as much this year. They’ve been doing a lot more even fronts and wide 9 stuff than they have in several years. They’ll still use a nose tackle, but rarely are five men on the line.

 

[Marvin49]

The question to me is can Seattle stop SF on O. I'm not trying to answer that as we won't know till Monday.

Umm that'd be a big negative ghostrider.

So far our defense has given just about every QB we've faced a career day passing. So if this is a game the Hawks win, it's going to have to be something similar to what we saw yesterday, a shootout that luck gives us the last possession so Russell can work his late game magic.

My gut says Niners win, something like 35-24. I just don't think Russell's going to be lights out like he's been because of how good the Niners front seven is. Too many 3 and outs, too many sacks, too many throw aways cause of pressure for us to keep up in a shootout.

Maybe the Niners offense or special teams gifts us a couple turnovers to keep it closer, but this is how I see the game going.

Its funny...I really don't know.

There are times the Niner O, particularly the Run Game, looks simply unbeatable. Defenders constantly confused and have no idea where the ball is.

Then there are times that stacking against the run really works. So far, I haven't been able to find any rhyme or reason to it in terms of relative defensive run strength.

AZ is bad against the run and largely held the 49ers pretty well. The Bucs were probably the best against it, but then again the Bucs are really good vs the run.

Then there are the Panthers who just looked lost.

 

[PackerNation]

9ers seems better on paper, a yuge win if Hawks pull out an upset.


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The teams are almost exactly even on paper. Seahawks have better WRs and linebackers, the 49ers everywhere else, except quarterback, where Seattle has a huge advantage (if Wilson was on the 49ers they’d be on their way to 19-0). Additionally, I think Seattle has a slight special teams advantage. If I were betting and not wearing homer glasses, I’d bet on Seattle with only one caveat: the potential for home field advantage.

You're being modest. If the Hawks win, it will be considered an upset.

If I had to put $100 on the game I am going with the 49ers. Every day and twice on Sunday's.

Your defense is #1 and they should be able to contain every facet of the game with the exception of Wilson. But can Wilson carry that team for 4 quarters while getting hit as he repeatedly needs to take off and run and make plays with his legs?

Your offense should be able to score at will on the Hawks and control the ball when it matters via the run.

Having the #1 defense with an above average offense is the key to winning and going deep or all the way in the playoffs.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

9ers seems better on paper, a yuge win if Hawks pull out an upset.


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The teams are almost exactly even on paper. Seahawks have better WRs and linebackers, the 49ers everywhere else, except quarterback, where Seattle has a huge advantage (if Wilson was on the 49ers they’d be on their way to 19-0). Additionally, I think Seattle has a slight special teams advantage. If I were betting and not wearing homer glasses, I’d bet on Seattle with only one caveat: the potential for home field advantage.

Who are these linebackers you speak of?

Even at WR, the advantage fades beyond Lockett. DK Metcalf is certainly promising, but you guys have Samuel who also is. You got Sanders as an immediately proven contributor.

I'd say the player-skill advantage to SEA in this game comes down to a few individuals across position groups: Clearly Wilson. Lockett. Arguably Shaquill Griffin, Metcalf and Dickson.

Scheme wise, there still might be success in targeting the newbs replacing Kwon Alexander. Even more in giving Russ more freedom to make plays. I'm not saying every play needs to be a deep ball or Russ taking off, but I'm suggesting there needs to be more of that to inject the "surprise" element.And more fourth down conversions and 2-point tries on our part, kinda like what the Pats started doing in response to their kicker issues.

Those plays are seen as more risky for a reason, but not as big a risk here as doing more of the conservative "run-run-pass let's try to get it to FG range" that Shan for sure has several schemes against.

.

 

[Marvin49]

9ers seems better on paper, a yuge win if Hawks pull out an upset.


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The teams are almost exactly even on paper. Seahawks have better WRs and linebackers, the 49ers everywhere else, except quarterback, where Seattle has a huge advantage (if Wilson was on the 49ers they’d be on their way to 19-0). Additionally, I think Seattle has a slight special teams advantage. If I were betting and not wearing homer glasses, I’d bet on Seattle with only one caveat: the potential for home field advantage.

Who are these linebackers you speak of?

Even at WR, the advantage fades beyond Lockett. DK Metcalf is certainly promising, but you guys have Samuel who also is. You got Sanders as an immediately proven contributor.

I'd say the player-skill advantage to SEA in this game comes down to a few individuals across position groups: Clearly Wilson. Lockett. Arguably Shaquill Griffin, Metcalf and Dickson.

Scheme wise, there still might be success in targeting the newbs replacing Kwon Alexander. Even more in giving Russ more freedom to make plays. I'm not saying every play needs to be a deep ball or Russ taking off, but I'm suggesting there needs to be more of that to inject the "surprise" element.

And more fourth down conversions and 2-point tries on our part, kinda like what the Pats did when they realized they couldn't rely on the kicker.

I'm not going to lie, I like the Niners chances in this game, but that Cards game is workin' on me a bit. Kyler runnin all over and runnin gup tempo did something we haven't seen all year...it stopped the Niner pass rush. Everything defensively stems off that.

Now it was on 4 days rest and the Niners had never seen that this season, but it makes me nervous. I don't expect Wilson to run the ball every other down, but I can see them running up tempo, exhausting that pass rush, and then going deep when Bosa and Ford can't catch their breath.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I don't expect Wilson to run the ball every other down, but I can see them running up tempo, exhausting that pass rush, and then going deep when Bosa and Ford can't catch their breath.

Do you watch the Hawks? I couldn't even tell you the last time we ran up tempo when it wasn't a four minute or two minute drill.

Up tempo and keeping defenses tired and on their heels? Nah, that's for other teams. This is Pete ball my friend, and Pete ball relies on it's MVP QB to scramble around and make perfect throws.