So, if you look at the Rich Hill trade value chart
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp, which is modeled after Bill Belichick's trade value chart, it becomes really hard to foresee a trade happening between the Bears and Seattle.
Background
A) Seattle supposedly considered trading Wilson for the #1 overall pick in 2018 but ultimately deemed they weren't getting enough value back. Since Wilson is 3 years older, we can assume the value of a Wilson trade now is roughly around the value of the 1st overall pick.
B) The value of a future pick depreciates by 32 picks worth of value for every year until that draft.
Analysis
The first overall pick is worth 1000 points. So, without even considering players, let's look at the value of the Bear's first three draft picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
2021: Pick #20 -
264, Pick #52 -
109, Pick #83 -
52 : Total Value:
425
2022: Round 1 -
109, Round 2 -
53, Round 3 -
25, Total Value:
187
2023: Round 1 -
53, Round 2 -
25, Round 3 -
12, Total Value:
90
Total value: 702 points.
Now, that trade on its own would be an insane amount of draft capital for the Bears to give up, and it doesn't come close to the value Seattle declined to trade Russell for in 2018, which would have been more than 1000 points.
Furthermore, I don't see any young players that could offset the draft value without gutting the team. For example, Roquan Smith is a great player who is probably worth a first-round pick in most trade scenarios; however, he plays a position that Seattle is relatively loaded at. I doubt Seattle would place a lot of value on him in a trade scenario. Mack is only an asset for Seattle if they feel like they can land an established QB or move into the top 10 of the draft. Even if the Bears made the ridiculous trade above, Seattle would barely be able to move into the top 10 of the draft without a guarantee that they'd even get a guy they like.
