3 FA WR's vs Golden Tate

[washmont]

I'd say resign Tate, let Rice go and get Decker, draft ASJ as the future replacement for Miller

Re-sign you mean?

Grammar Nazi

 

[The Outfield]

I'd say resign Tate, let Rice go and get Decker, draft ASJ as the future replacement for Miller

Re-sign you mean?

Grammar Nazi

There's quite a simple difference between those two very different words. :th2thumbs:

 

[Popeyejones]

Tate is a lot better than his stats. Honestly I don't see a way for them to keep him, and the same goes for Bennett. One thing they might be able to do is franchise one of them for a year, and then let him go for Wilson's payday. That might actually be feasible.

If anything, I'm guessing they'll need to let them both walk (assuming Sherm and Thomas are both signed), and then pick up one of the nice leftover pieces towards the end of FA on a one year deal (a la Bennett), or trade a pittance for someone who will need to be cut for cap reasons and who only has a year left on his deal (a la Anquan Boldin).

 

[QuahHawk]

Got to remember we are likely to cut Rice and Clemons saving about 12mil

 

[SoHo9erFan]

question is, can you guys afford Tate?? hate to brake it to you guys, but the salary cap is going to start to hurt you

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

question is, can you guys afford Tate?? hate to brake it to you guys, but the salary cap is going to start to hurt you

I think we are all quite aware. You guys won't be sitting so pretty once Kaepernick gets 18M/yr either.

Tate will come down to what kind of offers he receives. If he's $6m or less I think we re-sign him. If he wants more I think he'll walk.

 

[HawkMeat]

I Want to keep Tate, but Bennett must be considered since he is a keeper. Also the draft is full of WR talent this year.

 

[Popeyejones]

Got to remember we are likely to cut Rice and Clemons saving about 12mil

If they cut both, but if they're also likely to resign Thomas and Sherman, that will be costing about 25-30 million.

Rice is guaranteed to be gone IMO, but if they can keep Clemons or Bennett, Clemons is the most likely one to stay I think, as he'll be on the last year of his deal and then can be cleared out for Wilson's payday (the same isn't true of Bennett, as he'll require a new, multi-year deal). They have an out that allows them to cut Percy Harvin which would save 11 million on the cap next year and that MIGHT allow for the resigning of Tate, but that would be a pretty big move if they make it.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Got to remember we are likely to cut Rice and Clemons saving about 12mil

If they cut both, but if they're also likely to resign Thomas and Sherman, that will be costing about 25-30 million.

Rice is guaranteed to be gone IMO, but if they can keep Clemons or Bennett, Clemons is the most likely one to stay I think, as he'll be on the last year of his deal and then can be cleared out for Wilson's payday (the same isn't true of Bennett, as he'll require a new, multi-year deal). They have an out that allows them to cut Percy Harvin which would save 11 million on the cap next year and that MIGHT allow for the resigning of Tate, but that would be a pretty big move if they make it.

Your estimate of Thomas/Sherman is wrong. Thomas will get ~$10m and Sherman will get ~$12m. That's an increase of $18m/yr. If they cut Clemons and Rice that's a difference of $2.2m/yr (ignoring whoever they would have to sign/draft to replace them). On top of that Miller's cap number decreases by $4m next year so right there they are already covered.

 

[Popeyejones]

Your estimate of Thomas/Sherman is wrong. Thomas will get ~$10m and Sherman will get ~$12m.

You're of course free to disagree, but I'm not "wrong" about something that hasn't happened yet. I said 25-30 million. You're saying 22 million. I think my estimate is more accurate.

Here's why:

*You're saying Thomas will get about 10 million per. Last year as a 29 year old Goldson got 9 million per. Earl Thomas is a much superior player to Goldson (which everyone agrees about), and he's also 24 years old. Goldson is an inferior player who had peaked or just past his prime upon signing, whereas is Thomas is a superior player who has yet to enter what are thought to be his prime years. In my opinion, on the open market, for both of these reasons he will be offered a SIGNIFICANT amount more than Goldson. I'd guess in the range of 12 million.

*You're saying Richard Sherman will get about 12 million per. Two years ago as a 28 year old Cortland Finnegan got 12 million per (I'm leaving out Revis because his contract has no bonus, he was coming off a major injury, etc. -- it's just a goofy contract and an atypical situation). Richard Sherman is MUCH superior player to Cortland Finnegan, and is also 25. Finnegan was also toward the tail end of his prime when he signed his deal, and Sherman will be on the front end of his prime. Sherman is a much, much better player, and a younger one to boot. Expecting him to get the same contract as Finnegan is pretty crazy. I think we can expect him to get 14-15 million per.

Combined, I think we're talking 26-27 million, right in the sweet spot of the 25-30 rough range I gave.

If you disagree and would like to try convince me why Thomas will only make what Goldson made and Sherman will only make what Finnegan made I'm all ears*, but I'm certainly not "wrong" about something we're both projecting, and to be honest, I think I'm being pretty conservative in my expectations.

*(maybe you think Thomas and Sherman are both worse players than Goldson and Finnegan? You think the market prefers players closer to 30 than 25 year old All Pros? I really don't know).

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Your estimate of Thomas/Sherman is wrong. Thomas will get ~$10m and Sherman will get ~$12m.

You're of course free to disagree, but I'm not "wrong" about something that hasn't happened yet. I said 25-30 million. You're saying 22 million. I think my estimate is more accurate.

Here's why:

*You're saying Thomas will get about 10 million per. Last year as a 29 year old Goldson got 9 million per. Earl Thomas is a much superior player to Goldson (which everyone agrees about), and he's also 24 years old. Goldson is an inferior player who had peaked or just past his prime upon signing, whereas is Thomas is a superior player who has yet to enter what are thought to be his prime years. In my opinion, on the open market, for both of these reasons he will be offered a SIGNIFICANT amount more than Goldson. I'd guess in the range of 12 million.

*You're saying Richard Sherman will get about 12 million per. Two years ago as a 28 year old Cortland Finnegan got 12 million per (I'm leaving out Revis because his contract has no bonus, he was coming off a major injury, etc. -- it's just a goofy contract and an atypical situation). Richard Sherman is MUCH superior player to Cortland Finnegan, and is also 25. Finnegan was also toward the tail end of his prime when he signed his deal, and Sherman will be on the front end of his prime. Sherman is a much, much better player, and a younger one to boot. Expecting him to get the same contract as Finnegan is pretty crazy. I think we can expect him to get 14-15 million per.

Combined, I think we're talking 26-27 million, right in the sweet spot of the 25-30 rough range I gave.

If you disagree and would like to try convince me why Thomas will only make what Goldson made and Sherman will only make what Finnegan made I'm all ears*, but I'm certainly not "wrong" about something we're both projecting, and to be honest, I think I'm being pretty conservative in my expectations.

*(maybe you think Thomas and Sherman are both worse players than Goldson and Finnegan? You think the market prefers players closer to 30 than 25 year old All Pros? I really don't know).

It's all speculation of course, but I don't think they are going to spend $30M+ on the secondary alone. Schneider is a very good GM and I'm sure he realizes that spending 11m on Percy, 12m on Thomas, 15m on Sherman and then the inevitable 20m on Wilson is a surefire way to lose the success they've had. That's almost half the salary cap on 4 players.

 

[Marvin49]

Tate has been better for you guys than I ever would have thought.

I wouldn't touch Decker with a 10 foot pole. That's all Manning.

 

[-The Glove-]

question is, can you guys afford Tate?? hate to brake it to you guys, but the salary cap is going to start to hurt you

Thanks for "braking" it to us. Never would have thought about it otherwise

 

[Popeyejones]

It's all speculation of course, but I don't think they are going to spend $30M+ on the secondary alone. Schneider is a very good GM and I'm sure he realizes that spending 11m on Percy, 12m on Thomas, 15m on Sherman and then the inevitable 20m on Wilson is a surefire way to lose the success they've had. That's almost half the salary cap on 4 players.

Okay, gotcha. My post was conditioned on them resigning both Sherman and Thomas. Agreed that's a VERY tall task, and that if they let one of those two walk, they'll definitely be able to put that money somewhere else.

 

[Popeyejones]

Tate has been better for you guys than I ever would have thought.

I wouldn't touch Decker with a 10 foot pole. That's all Manning.

Agreed about both Tate and Decker. Tate has started to get some national love in the second half of this season, but he's still underrated, IMO. I think a fair number of teams will be all over him. He deserves it. Heck, including injury history and coachability into the equation I might even like him a hair more than Harvin, and I really like Harvin a lot.

 

[onanygivensunday]

They have an out that allows them to cut Percy Harvin which would save 11 million on the cap next year and that MIGHT allow for the resigning of Tate, but that would be a pretty big move if they make it.

Aside from being a stupid move imo, cutting Percy is not a viable option because doing so after this year would result in a $9.6M cap hit in 2014 due to his "dead money".

link to Harvin's cap hits... http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seah ... cy-harvin/

 

[QuahHawk]

Both will take less to stay in seattle. I think ET gets $10M per year but could be set up so it only counts as 8 for the next 2 or 3 years then goes up. And if Sherman wants more than $14m we let him walk. With Maxwell Lane and WE we'd still be an Avg secondary. Maybe Tharold Simon steps right in.

 

[Popeyejones]

They have an out that allows them to cut Percy Harvin which would save 11 million on the cap next year and that MIGHT allow for the resigning of Tate, but that would be a pretty big move if they make it.

Aside from being a stupid move imo, cutting Percy is not a viable option because doing so after this year would result in a $9.6M cap hit in 2014 due to his "dead money".

link to Harvin's cap hits... http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seah ... cy-harvin/

Ah, thanks for the correction. Thought his contract was structured differently. They'd save 4 million, not 11.

 

[Largent80]

Tate is fantastic and I want him on the Hawks for years to come.

 

[Popeyejones]

Both will take less to stay in seattle.

We know this how? I guess we'll see. 9ers fans like to tell themselves the same thing about their players, but personally I think it's bogus and just fans being greedy.

It's fans being greedy because they've ALREADY gotten to root for these guys for a pittance. Richard Sherman is the best CB in the league and he has been getting paid hundreds of thousands less than Chris Maragos for three years now. Earl Thomas is the best FS in the league and he's making the same as Paul McQuistan. Fans should be happy that they've gotten these guys for a song, not expecting them to keep on taking money out of their own pockets when they've got really short shelf lives as far careers go and non-guaranteed contracts. Heck, I think getting both of these guys for 25-27 million per probably WOULD be a hometown discount. They're both All Pros, the best at their position in the league, and they're 25 and 24 years old. Even with hometown discounts were talking the biggest contracts at their position yet I'd think, and that's very well deserved.