49ers trading up to #3 pick with Dolphins.

[94Smith]

Big gamble for sure, but at the very least it should allow us to extend Warner, Bosa, Greenlaw, Aiyuk, and Samuel (once Garoppolo's salary is released).

 

[Maulbert]

Yes guys, risk.

Of course, there's risk in everything in life.

But you're not taking into account two things:

1) The 49ers up and down seasons the last decade
2) The quality of team this QB will go to

#1 - After the way the 2014 season ended into 2015, I WISH the Niners could have done some crazy shit to have kept it together the year prior (i.e. trade for some star WR or CB). Hindsight is 20/20, but the team got smashed in the face without having to trade away 3 first rounders for it. That's ******* brutal and the Seahawk fanbase never experienced that.

From this standpoint, there's more risk not going after a QB than hanging out and drafting BPA at #12.

#2 - Alex Smith? Haha. If he was drafted today, he'd have been redshirted a season if not two and would become a franchise QB. Smith was known to be a late bloomer by Urban Meyer himself, and despite the rather brutal first 5 years in the league, he's done pretty well for himself utilizing only about 70% of his skillset. The 2006 film of Smith is surreal to watch......bares zero resemblance to what people have seen the last decade, none. A legit dual threat QB ahead of his time. Just didn't WTF he was doing.

Meanwhile the baller Aaron Rodgers got a few years to fix his throwing motion while the sexual predator ahead of him took his time to move on. The career gaps are huge, but if paths were reversed, it'd be a lot closer than what it is now. Maybe Rodgers is a baller no matter what (big maybe to that), but it's more likely that Smith in Green Bay has a decent career, and Rodgers as a Niner is an exciting QB that never plays in the big one.

So anyway, how many teams over the last 20 years picking top 3 are as good as the 49ers right now? Organizational stability, talent in the trenches, a smart offensive minded coach, just been to a Super Bowl under 500 days ago. They even have a QB who got their team to the SB, and is legitimately expected to be a threat to do so.

Name me one team over the last 10-20 seasons that even resembles this? All of these rookies forced to start on subpar teams. Of course it's gonna be tough. Nobody ever gets this type of situation.

If none of these guys can hack it on the 49ers, AFTER A YEAR ON THE BENCH, then the entire scouting field got it wrong on them. Massively wrong.

You're telling me Russell Wilson, the 2012 Wisconsin prospect, is better than all of these QBs? LOL.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2012/lewin-career-forecast-2012

The Asterisk

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: 2,650 DYAR

Important stats: 48 games started, 60.7% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 64.1 points.

I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention the ridiculous projection that the Lewin Career Forecast spits out for Russell Wilson. Yes, that projection is even higher than the one for Robert Griffin. No, it doesn't particularly mean that Wilson is a sleeper prospect. There are a few things going on here that the LCF is just not designed to account for.

First and foremost, the change in Wilson's passer rating between his junior and senior years is insane. Remember that earlier I noted that Griffin had a larger senior year passer rating increase than any quarterback in our data set? Well, Wilson's senior year passer rating increase is 40 percent larger than Griffin's. But does it matter when the quarterback is playing in a completely different offense for a completely different school in his last year of college eligibility? At Wisconsin, Wilson got to pick apart defenses that were concentrating on stopping Montee Ball. At North Carolina State, I doubt opponents were quaking in their boots at the thought of Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes. It goes without saying that there isn't another quarterback in the LCF data set who transferred between his junior and senior years.

There's also the issue of height, another data point where there's nobody in our data set that can be compared to Wilson. At first, it seems strange that LCF doesn't include a variable to discount short quarterbacks, but when you look at the data set that went into creating LCF the reasons are pretty clear. There's no penalty for being 5-foot-11, like Wilson is, because there are no quarterbacks in the data set who are shorter than 6-foot-0. There's no penalty for being only 6-foot-0 because the two quarterbacks who are 6-foot-0 are Drew Brees and Michael Vick.

Quarterbacks who are Wilson's height simply don't get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, period. The FO master database only includes three quarterbacks who are below six feet tall: Seneca Wallace, Joe Hamilton, and Flutie. That's a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and an 11th round pick from 25 years ago. Even if we go all the way back to 1991, the only quarterbacks taken in the first six rounds at 6-foot-0 or shorter were Vick, Brees, Wallace, Joe Germaine (fourth round, 1999), and Troy Smith (fifth round, 2007).

Wilson too will probably be drafted on the third day of the draft, round four or later, which would render his absurdly high LCF moot.

 

[Fade]

Adding on here.

Since 2000, 70% of QBs taken in the 1st rd have been busts. The numbers point to this being a disaster especially when I look at the prospects available at 3.

Mac Jones the likely pick is not worth such an aggressive trade up. All the QBs that have "hit" in recent years have the ability to create and extend when the initial play doesn't work. Mac Jones is not that player.

Fields and Lance will have disappointing careers. They represent the other end of the extreme/spectrum. They will not be able to run an NFL offense with any sort of consistency, but will make splash plays with their legs from time to time.

Kyle Trask who will go in the 2nd round or later will have a better career than all of them. No need to burn 3 Firsts and a 3rd here, unless the Jets stand pat with Darnold and they come away with Zach Wilson.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

:49ersmall:

Adding on here.

Since 2000, 70% of QBs taken in the 1st rd have been busts. The numbers point to this being a disaster especially when I look at the prospects available at 3.

Mac Jones the likely pick is not worth such an aggressive trade up. All the QBs that have "hit" in recent years have the ability to create and extend when the initial play doesn't work. Mac Jones is not that player.

Fields and Lance will have disappointing careers. They represent the other end of the extreme/spectrum. They will not be able to run an NFL offense with any sort of consistency, but will make splash plays with their legs from time to time.

Kyle Trask who will go in the 2nd round or later will have a better career than all of them. No need to burn 3 Firsts and a 3rd here, unless the Jets stand pat with Darnold and they come away with Zach Wilson.

You saw Trask in his last 2020 appearance, right? He was making mistakes all over the place. I seriously thought he'd drop to Round 2 after that.

Anyways Niners media is putting their money on Fields being the one. To me that's still a risky bet, but not as risky as Trask.

 

[Marvin49]

Adding on here.

Since 2000, 70% of QBs taken in the 1st rd have been busts. The numbers point to this being a disaster especially when I look at the prospects available at 3.

Mac Jones the likely pick is not worth such an aggressive trade up. All the QBs that have "hit" in recent years have the ability to create and extend when the initial play doesn't work. Mac Jones is not that player.

Fields and Lance will have disappointing careers. They represent the other end of the extreme/spectrum. They will not be able to run an NFL offense with any sort of consistency, but will make splash plays with their legs from time to time.

Kyle Trask who will go in the 2nd round or later will have a better career than all of them. No need to burn 3 Firsts and a 3rd here, unless the Jets stand pat with Darnold and they come away with Zach Wilson.

So...here's my thing.

1) Most of the QBs you see who get taken in the 1st round, especially the top 10, are drafted by bad teams. There is a reason they had those picks.

This is a different animal. For as much as many of you can't stand Kyle, most of you would acknowledge he's one of the best OCs in the NFL. This won't be a rookie OC or a defensive coach molding this guys career. I watched Alex Smith nearly get ruined by 5 different OCs in 5 years. This rookie will have Kyle and he'll have him for a LONG time.

That doesn't mean its not risky...but you have to look inside those numbers to examine WHY a guy busts, not just that he does. The 49ers already have 50% of the equasion for molding a young QB. That can't be said for all 1st round QBs.

2) I REALLY think this pick will NOT be Mac Jones. Part of that is admittedly because I don't want it to be, but it also just doesn't make any sense.

People are SOOOOO enamored with thinking that Kyle just loves Cousins and QBs like Cousins. People seem to think that he will bypass athletic QBs for unathletic pocket passers.

The truth is that there is SOME truth to that...but here's the part you guys are missing...he does that and takes those pocket passers later in the draft. He doesn't expend premium picks on unathletic passers. Its like RB...he has one of the best run schemes in the NFL, but how many high picks have you seen him use on RBs? Its about getting the most out of the scheme and NOT use those premium picks on the position.

Kyle could have had Cousins in his first year if he were willing to give up a high pick. He could have had him in FA the following year. That's not what he's looking for.

If Kyle is going WAY up in the draft and going after a QB, he is NOT doing so for a guy who is marginally better than the one he has or a 3rd-5th round guy he can get later. Kyle passed on Mahomes and Watson to get Beathard in rd 3. He was there when Washington took Cousins in rd 5. He coached RGIII to a rookie of the year season before RGIII tanked bad post-injury and without the Shanahans.

Who did his dad win with? His dad won a SB as an OC with Steve Young and in Denver as a HC with John Elway. SF has been all in this off-season on Watson. Seriously, go back and read his comments after the 49ers lost to the Bills. Look at what he said about Josh Allen.

People. Mac Jones ain't the pick. The people that are saying so aren't seeing the whole picture.

I'm pretty sure its WIlson/Fields/Lance depending on whom is there. Kyle is looking for off the charts talent, not Mac Jones.

 

[UK_Seahawk]

If its just coaching why do so many of these busts not get better when they move on. Deshon Kizer has the same coaches as Aaron Rodgers, Paxton Lynch had the same as Russell Wilson.

I think your just making stuff up to try and justify what is most likely a stupid decision.

 

[Marvin49]

If its just coaching why do so many of these busts not get better when they move on. Deshon Kizer has the same coaches as Aaron Rodgers, Paxton Lynch had the same as Russell Wilson.

I think your just making stuff up to try and justify what is most likely a stupid decision.

Seriously? Did I say it was "just coaching"? I didn't say anything remotely like that.

I said most 1st round QBs end up in bad situations. Coaching is a BIG part of it, but certainly not all.

In fact, in the very post you are responding to I said 50%. Can you argue with me that most top 10 QBs don't end up with an OC half as good as Kyle?

As for "making stuff up", you won't find a 49er fan on this page who has said this is as big a risk as I have, nor as often as I have. It sounds alot more to me like you REALLY want this to be a stupid decision and have no interest in being convinced otherwise.

 

[Washington49er]

If its just coaching why do so many of these busts not get better when they move on. Deshon Kizer has the same coaches as Aaron Rodgers, Paxton Lynch had the same as Russell Wilson.

I think your just making stuff up to try and justify what is most likely a stupid decision.

Seriously? Did I say it was "just coaching"? I didn't say anything remotely like that.

I said most 1st round QBs end up in bad situations. Coaching is a BIG part of it, but certainly not all.

In fact, in the very post you are responding to I said 50%. Can you argue with me that most top 10 QBs don't end up with an OC half as good as Kyle?

As for "making stuff up", you won't find a 49er fan on this page who has said this is as big a risk as I have, nor as often as I have. It sounds alot more to me like you REALLY want this to be a stupid decision and have no interest in being convinced otherwise.

Of course its a risk unless you can predict the future.

Of course most Hawk fans are hoping whatever the 9ers do will be a bust.

 

[Ramfan128]

Great move by the Niners. Jimmy is exactly where you don't want to be in terms of your starting QB. Smart of Shanahan to get out from under that.

First round picks are ridiculously overrated.

But having said that - the Niners took a major hit losing Saleh. And some people are ignoring last year because of injuries and that's fine - but compared to their Super Bowl defense they're missing an elite interior DL and their best CB, along with one of the best DCs in the NFL. The Bears lost their DC after their insane season, didn't lose the players the Niners did and still took a hit.

I think KS knows this and made this drastic move because the offense needs to be better to make up for this.

Great move for the future - for next year, this division is too good. That also could have factored into KS making this move. Niners are probably going to finish with 8-10 wins which feels like 3rd place right now.

 

[toffee]

The 49ers didn't even call John to offer their No. 12 pick this year, a first- and third-round pick in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023.

Ok it's not enough but they could add a defense star or so .....

Sent from my IN2017 using Tapatalk

 

[Elemas]

If there weren’t reports of Shanahan liking Jones vs Lynch preferring Lance, I’d think the 49ers made this move thinking Smith was going to the Jets.

That would be crazy. I don’t want Zach Wilson in the NFC...

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1378049943944986637[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/stat ... 3944986637

 

[Sports Hernia]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1378049943944986637[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/stat ... 3944986637

Good luck with that.... LOL.

 

[Maulbert]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1378049943944986637[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/stat ... 3944986637

Good luck with that.... LOL.

Well.... never forget, the Seahawks got a 1st for Rick Mirer and a 4th.

 

[94Smith]

Might get a first for him . Could see it happening if a) a excellent team with a premier quarterback and a bad back up has a catastrophic injury to the premier qb in training camp b) he has a season similar to 2019 season this year /stays healthy and they trade him in the offseason. His no trade clause is gone next year.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Might get a first for him . Could see it happening if a) a excellent team with a premier quarterback and a bad back up has a catastrophic injury to the premier qb in training camp b) he has a season similar to 2019 season this year /stays healthy and they trade him in the offseason. His no trade clause is gone next year.

I could see it happening for 2022 definitely.

But for this year, even if they do get their pick of Fields/Lance/Trask, I don't think so. I mean, outside of Trevor Lawrence and maybe, maybe Zach Wilson, the first tiers are like anyone's first tiers in a typical year.

That's why I think the 2021 rumors about Jimmy are mostly BS. With Jimmy, they've got someone who took them to a SB and most of their big producers are still under contract. They have to have the kid for 2021 in case Jimmy sits out for injury again.

Could be wrong, maybe Belichick comes up with that first (which would be a good first considering the Pats suck now), but if they took it that's a huge risk.

 

[Marvin49]

Responding to a couple things about read here...

1) RE wanting a 1 for Jimmy. This ain’t that difficult. They don’t intend to trade him. If someone is willing to part with a 1, go for it. It’s no an issue of their perceived trade value. It’s that he has value to them just being on the team and they aren’t going to dump him for nothing. It requires them being blown away. Net effect is that likely nobody offers a 1 for him...which is fine because their intent isn’t to trade him.

2) RE “reports” about who Shanahan wants: Dont believe anything you hear. The 49ers under Baalke leaked like crazy. Everything got out. Under Lynch and Shanahan, that ain’t the case. At all. If you hear something, it’s because someone is making it up or the 49ers are leaking it on purpose. That’s why I don’t believe any of the Mac Jones stuff. Pretty sure it’ll be Wilson, Fields, or Lance. Nobody saw this trade coming. Nobody saw McGlinchey pick coming. There were people saying Niners liked Williams over Bosa. It’s all BS. They don’t always make a good pick (Thomas, Foster), but they keep who they are picking in the building.

Media jumping all over the fact that 49ers went and saw Mac Jones workout. Less public? Adam Peters, who went to see Bosa 2 years ago, went to see Fields. Ya know who else was there to see Fields? MIKE Shanahan.

Now reports are out there that Shanahan and Lynch don’t agree. The reports are that Lynch wants Lance and Shanahan wants Mac Jones. What does that make me think? They want Fields.

Nobody knows. If they say they do, they are lyin. The fact that so much effort is going into attaching Mac Jones to the Niners at 3 pretty much assures me he ain’t the pick. If he were, it wouldn’t be so damn public. They dont want someone jumping ahead of them for who they really want.

I do t know either tho so I could be completely wrong here. However, this is what I think is going on.

 

[chris98251]

Responding to a couple things about read here...

1) RE wanting a 1 for Jimmy. This ain’t that difficult. They don’t intend to trade him. If someone is willing to part with a 1, go for it. It’s no an issue of their perceived trade value. It’s that he has value to them just being on the team and they aren’t going to dump him for nothing. It requires them being blown away. Net effect is that likely nobody offers a 1 for him...which is fine because their intent isn’t to trade him.

2) RE “reports” about who Shanahan wants: Dont believe anything you hear. The 49ers under Baalke leaked like crazy. Everything got out. Under Lynch and Shanahan, that ain’t the case. At all. If you hear something, it’s because someone is making it up or the 49ers are leaking it on purpose. That’s why I don’t believe any of the Mac Jones stuff. Pretty sure it’ll be Wilson, Fields, or Lance. Nobody saw this trade coming. Nobody saw McGlinchey pick coming. There were people saying Niners liked Williams over Bosa. It’s all BS. They don’t always make a good pick (Thomas, Foster), but they keep who they are picking in the building.

Media jumping all over the fact that 49ers went and saw Mac Jones workout. Less public? Adam Peters, who went to see Bosa 2 years ago, went to see Fields. Ya know who else was there to see Fields? MIKE Shanahan.

Now reports are out there that Shanahan and Lynch don’t agree. The reports are that Lynch wants Lance and Shanahan wants Mac Jones. What does that make me think? They want Fields.

Nobody knows. If they say they do, they are lyin. The fact that so much effort is going into attaching Mac Jones to the Niners at 3 pretty much assures me he ain’t the pick. If he were, it wouldn’t be so damn public. They dont want someone jumping ahead of them for who they really want.

I do t know either tho so I could be completely wrong here. However, this is what I think is going on.

This is liars poker season, they could go for a LT for example but say what they are saying to make teams Jockey up for QB's letting a LT drop to them.

 

[knownone]

Who benefits from the rumors that the Niners are interested in Mac Jones? Most of us believe it's improbable that the Niners moved up to draft Jones. So it's ludicrous to assume a team would trade up to stop the Niners from drafting him. My theory is these leaks are coming from the Niners for two reasons: A) they want to placate teams into thinking they'll draft Jones so they can get the guy they want, or B) they actually are considering taking Jones.

Reason A seems like the more logical scenario, but I wouldn't rule out them drafting Jones. He fits a similar mold of QB's that have succeeded in Kyle's system, like Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy G. On top of that, he's got the highest floor of any QB they could potentially grab at that spot, which would be a determining factor if they don't believe the other QBs have significantly higher ceilings.

As for Jimmy G, the Niners are asking for a 1st and hoping someone offers a 2nd. This is not like Alex Smith's situation in KC. The Chiefs didn't mortgage their entire future for a QB. They won 12 games the year before, and Smith hadn't had a losing season in 6 years as a starter. In contrast, Jimmy G has battled injuries in 2 out of 3 seasons, and he's only had one full season as a starter. Unless the Niners are drafting a project QB, they'd be silly not to trade Jimmy if someone offers a 2nd (or maybe even a 3rd) for him.

 

[Threedee]

Many could easily say that future first round picks for the Seahawks will be disasters based on track record too. Who is a bonafide 1st round Seahawk player that makes you go wow? Earl Thomas?

Let's revisit these guys individually:

RG3 - was not wanted by the Shanahan coaching staff. Was forced onto them by ownership. They made it work because of creative coaching.

Goff - seemed pretty good. The Rams in 2016 were a terrible place to be for a QB, and then suddenly the next few years things changed dramatically. Goff might not have been the guy ultimately, but I don't recall the pros/cons of his draft stock. Seemed like he relied on the running game a bit too much, more than Jimmy G does.

Wentz - Easy to look now and see faults, but great rookie season. Woulda snagged an MVP for sure if he didn't get hurt. Still a decent QB talent, and the change of scenery is likely to help him. Has attitude issues, but far from a terrible player.

Trubisky - Don't have the answer here. Should never have been drafted so high. Also don't feel Trubisky counts in this conversation....going from #3 to #2 is not a huge get and for some reason the Bears couldn't see that the 49ers wouldn't have drafted him. It's nowhere near the other 3 on here.......the Bears missed but they didn't unload the farm to get him, luckily for them.

So based on my analysis here, 3 out of the 4 guys here if redrafted in 2021 with the 49ers would do very well. The 49ers right now are one of the best teams a 1st round (let alone a super high pick 1st round) could go to. This is an even better team than the one that drafted Nick Bosa at #2.

Predict disaster? LMFAO, love it.

Meanwhile the Russell Wilson situation in Seattle literally couldn't be any better I bet.

Right. :roll:

I actually think the Trubisky pick was a huge disaster. To begin with, just putting him on the field was an embarrassment to the Da Bears. Also, it's not like they drafted a hugely touted prospect like Ryan Leaf. They swung for a guy who a lot of people thought would suck (including my dumb ass), and he proceeded to prove us right.

Also, that's not an argument you made regarding RGIII. It doesn't matter who wanted him on the WFT. That's like saying that because the Seahawks coaching tree didn't want to draft Dan McGwire, it doesn't count as an epic fail when the moronic Ken F. Behring went and drafted him anyway.