DaneM1983":k3zip0s5 said:
Hardly anything actually favors the Seahawks with regards to stats/splits especially when you consider the actual matchups.
The stats you linked say that NO > Seattle on offense and Seattle > NO on defense. Being favored in one of the two major components of the game is not "hardly anything" in my book.
Also, Seattle > NO on special teams. PFF grades Seattle as #1 on special teams by a wide margin over the #2 team:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/11/21/the-third-phase-ranking-the-special-teams/2/
If you don't like PFF, then consider that Seattle has only given up 15 punt return yards TOTAL on the season, and that kicker Steven Hauschka has only missed one field goal this year. So that's two out of three phases of the game where Seattle has a clear advantage, and one phase where NO has a clear advantage.
While I know Seattle fans think they invented crowd noise it took a new stadium and clever engineering you even get you in the conversation with the Superdome when it comes to that.
Pretty sure the crowd noise thing goes back to the Kingdome, which has been around just as long as the Superdome. Go ask John Elway which crowd he thinks is louder.
On the subject of stats, let me just echo Roland above: Look at the work Football Outsiders has done. Their metric is hands down the best way to measure performance. Traditional stats, like the ones you linked above, don't adjust for context or opponent. Does anyone really believe that Houston has the number one defense in the league? Does anyone really think that 1 yard on 3rd & 10 is the same as 1 yard on 3rd & 1? According to traditional stats both are just as good. According to everyone else, that's just nonsense. Clearly you have to adjust for context.
According to Football Outsiders, once you've taken into account game situation and opponent strength, Seattle rather than Houston has the best defense (with Arizona a very close second). In fact, Houston drops all the way down to 19, which is much more in line with what you would expect. NO, unfortunately, drops out of the top 10 entirely, down to 12. Still a good defense, and leagues better than last year, but far from elite.
Overall, they have Seattle as the clear #1 team, above even Denver. If you think they're wrong, then tell us why you think they're wrong. What aren't they considering that you think they should? Combine Seattle's #1 ranking in DVOA with homefield advantage, and you can see why some people are confident of a win.
Then factor in the absolutely easy schedule Seattle has (sub .400) opponent winning percentage and the bevy of mediocre to below average quarterbacks you've faced and I'm shocked at how arrogant/over confident some folks here are.
You play the teams on your schedule. The combined record of Seattle's opponents is as low as it is because they've played several bottom-feeder teams. With few exceptions, they've dominated those teams, which is as much as you can ask for. And they've defeated all but one of the better teams on their schedule, sometimes by a slim margin (Carolina) and other times more handily (SF and Arizona).
This is going to be a very close game and anyone saying with confidence that their team is going to win is just being a fan
If this game were on a neutral field, I'd agree the game would probably be close. If it were in NO, I'd definitely give the edge to the Saints. But this is in Seattle. It won't be a blowout, but you don't have to be a homer to think that Seattle could win by 10-14 points. This is not a slight against the Saints, who by all measures are one of the elite teams in the NFL.
I'll grant you this: If the Hawks come out flat like they have in other games this year, the Saints could easily pull off the upset. They're more than good enough to do that. Given Seattle's tendency under Carroll to underperform after long breaks, this is a very real possibility. Factor in the loss of 2 of the team's top 3 CB's to suspension/injury, as well as the law of Any Given Sunday (Monday?), and it's not hard to imagine a Hawks loss. But I certainly don't EXPECT it to happen, and if the Saints do pull off the win, it should be considered an upset.
