scrummymustard":2ea1h59g said:
Popeyejones":2ea1h59g said:
Sox-n-Hawks":2ea1h59g said:
He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.
Yep, receiving TDs are incredibly high variance. Paying a guy because he caught a lot of TDs is just a horrible idea.
Jimmy just basically put up a season like Julius Thomas did in Denver in 2014.
Someone is gonna be dumb and pay for that as based on the misguided idea that receiving TDs are consistent across years, but they don't.
ummmmm, he's had TD seasons of 11, 9, 16, 10 & 10. He's consistently shown he can put up high receiving TD numbers. Comparing him to a Julius Thomas is disingenuous.
And...
(1) He's also had TD seasons, of 6, 5, and 2, which you're leaving out because to acknowledge them would mean he's not as consistent as you'd like to pretend he is.
(2) Four of the five seasons you listed for him were when he was on the Saints and benefited from the Peyton/Brees effect that makes all pass catchers look better than they were. To reach those numbers again you'd also have to nearly double his target totals since he has been on the Seahawks.
I mean, heck, even Brandin Cooks was down this year from his previous two years because he was stuck playing with Tom Brady instead of Bree's in Peyton's Air Coryell offense. :lol:
3) Regarding the Julius Thomas comp, he had back-to-back 12 TD seasons because he got to play with Peyton in that offense, and because he got unsustainably lucky on TDs.
In 2014 Julius Thomas he had 12 TDs on 489 yards receiving total. This year Graham had 10 TDs on 520 receiving yards. It's like when Eifert had 13 TDs on 600 receiving yards in 2015.
These types of TD %s for pass catchers never have been, and never will be, sustainable across years. It's just not the way it works.