Report: Jimmy Graham

[Seymour]

I'll believe what John Clayton says would be the cap hit to sign him, he's always on top of this stuff.

Doesn't matter if it's 10 or 15M he isn't coming back and shouldn't. He was #2 in the NFL in drops through week 16 and disappears between the 20's. He is marshmallow man tough on blocking, and disconnects when not kept involved.

Screw the TD's (that was 1 season only). Build an oline that can gain 1 yard when they need to and watch the erruption of RB scores go up from a grand total of 1 for the year. ukeface:

 

[original poster]

I'll believe what John Clayton says would be the cap hit to sign him, he's always on top of this stuff.

And OTC.

 

[Popeyejones]

Kyle Shanahan would utilize Jimmy into a 15 Td, 1000 yard season. He has elevated lesser talent. He'd work wonders with Jimmy, Hyde, and Jimmy GQ

This is kinda like the Patriots/Brady argument though, in which fans of decent receivers on their own teams try to hype up how good their guys are by arguing that they'd have better stats if they played for the Patriots.

That Shanahan could probably get better numbers out of Graham than the Seahawks can doesn't mean that Shanahan should pay for Graham, as he can get better numbers out of everyone (e.g. Marquise Goodwin had a previous career high of 430 yards in a season, and would have cracked 1K this year if he didn't get knocked out of the game in Week 17 -- Shanahan just got a nearly 1K yard receiver for 3 million a year because he's Shanahan).

Kinda OT, but although I really like Hyde as a runner, I'd be shocked if he's back with the 9ers next year. He's great for an inside zone or power gap scheme, but just isn't a good fit for Shanahan's outside zone scheme.

FWIW if the Hawks have any FA money I think Hyde would be great for them in their inside zone scheme, and could really be a difference maker.

 

[scrummymustard]

I'll believe what John Clayton says would be the cap hit to sign him, he's always on top of this stuff.

Come on man.

Since you won’t read the CBA, how about an article from Joel Corry, an ex NFL agent.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agen ... g-in-2018/

“The way non-exclusive franchise tags are determined underwent a change with the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement. This franchise tag number had been an average of the five largest salaries in the prior year at a player's position or 120 percent of the prior year's salary of the player, whichever was greater, since its inception in 1993. For franchise tag purposes, salary means a player's salary cap number, excluding workout bonuses.

It is too cost prohibitive for the Seahawks to franchise tight end Jimmy Graham. The signing bonus proration from Graham's 2014 deal with the Saints, making him the NFL's first and only $10 million per year tight end, gets included under the 120 percent of the prior year's salary rules. This makes his franchise number $15.48 million.”


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[SoulfishHawk]

Go Hawks

 

[fenderbender123]

Good. He doesn't fit our offense. He can't run block, so every time he's in the game it telegraphs the defense that we are passing the ball. And the few times he does run block, he gets beat pretty bad.

 

[original poster]

ScrummyMustard, you were spot on with the JG franchise tag number, I asked Jason at OTC -

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Wow, that's crazy. I stand corrected. Clayton was way off. He said a speck over 10 mil. Well, that's that on Graham.

 

[original poster]

He’d have been going from the figure on OTC, which, to be fair, is usually spot on.

OTC have it at $10.36M

 

[scrummymustard]

He’d have been going from the figure on OTC, which, to be fair, is usually spot on.

OTC have it at $10.36M

OTC isn’t wrong.

To franchise tag any other TE in the league, it would be $10.36 because the other TEs 120% of 2016 salary is less than $10.36 million. So the TE tag amount would be the number.

Remember it is the GREATER of either the tag amount or 120% of the prior year salary.

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[original poster]

He’d have been going from the figure on OTC, which, to be fair, is usually spot on.

OTC have it at $10.36M

OTC isn’t wrong.

To franchise tag any other TE in the league, it would be $10.36 because the other TEs 120% of 2016 salary is less than $10.36 million. So the TE tag amount would be the number.

Remember it is the GREATER of either the tag amount or 120% of the prior year salary.

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It is.

It specifically said the FT for Graham was $10.36M, not $15.48M

 

[Bigpumpkin]

How much does the franchise value touchdowns? Bear in mind that we only had ONE rushing touchdown all year....and that was from the 30 yard line. When put in that perspective , Jimmy's touchdowns seem mighty important. Now....are they worth $1 million dollars each? You be the judge.

 

[scrummymustard]

He was targeted 3 more times than last season and caught 8 fewer balls. It just so happened that when he was able to pull down the ball, it was in the endzone. He also had the second fewest yards of his career. As cool as his TDs were this season, I have this gut feeling that its is not something that will continue if he stays.

Yep, receiving TDs are incredibly high variance. Paying a guy because he caught a lot of TDs is just a horrible idea.

Jimmy just basically put up a season like Julius Thomas did in Denver in 2014.

Someone is gonna be dumb and pay for that as based on the misguided idea that receiving TDs are consistent across years, but they don't.

ummmmm, he's had TD seasons of 11, 9, 16, 10 & 10. He's consistently shown he can put up high receiving TD numbers. Comparing him to a Julius Thomas is disingenuous.

And...

(1) He's also had TD seasons, of 6, 5, and 2, which you're leaving out because to acknowledge them would mean he's not as consistent as you'd like to pretend he is.

(2) Four of the five seasons you listed for him were when he was on the Saints and benefited from the Peyton/Brees effect that makes all pass catchers look better than they were. To reach those numbers again you'd also have to nearly double his target totals since he has been on the Seahawks.

I mean, heck, even Brandin Cooks was down this year from his previous two years because he was stuck playing with Tom Brady instead of Bree's in Peyton's Air Coryell offense. :lol:

3) Regarding the Julius Thomas comp, he had back-to-back 12 TD seasons because he got to play with Peyton in that offense, and because he got unsustainably lucky on TDs.

In 2014 Julius Thomas he had 12 TDs on 489 yards receiving total. This year Graham had 10 TDs on 520 receiving yards. It's like when Eifert had 13 TDs on 600 receiving yards in 2015.

These types of TD %s for pass catchers never have been, and never will be, sustainable across years. It's just not the way it works.

I’ll try and rebut.

1. You are including a 5 td rookie season that was his 2nd year of football since like middle school. He wasn’t the starter (Shockey was) and played like 25% of the snaps that year. You are also including the 2 td season where he tore his patellar, missed 5 games and was new to the hawks. He had 6 TDs in 2016, but was only targeted 2 times inside the 10 yard line. Clearly not being used correctly.

2. So in 5 out of 6 years that he played fully, he scored at least 9 TDs. I wouldn’t say Cooks had a down year in NE than in NO, 1083/7 is not really a down year when his best in NO was 1138/9. Gronks worst year in TDs when healthy was 8 tds, he’s had 10, 11, 11, 12 & 17 the other years.

Yes NO is a superior offense than here, and stats are “inflated”, but talent always shines. Since Graham came here, their best TEs have had TD seasons of 6 (Watson 2015) 3 & 2 (Fleener in 2016&2017). Scheme matters, but you also have to have the talent to continuously produce.

3. Julius Thomas definitely had his stats helped by having Manning. Scheme and a HOF QB matters, it always will, but I’d point to him being an outlier than a superior talent, as shown by doing absolutely nothing outside of those two years. I believe that Eifert is talented enough to score a high amount of TDs unfortunately he can’t stay healthy in the slightest. He’s missed 22 games in the last two years to really know how he would produce.

I actually do agree with you that TDs are volatile, but not for superior HOF talent IMO.

Gronkowski and Graham are the two best red zone options in the NFL, and they have sustained it for 5+ years. I also believe if Graham doesn’t end up staying, that he will continue to be a TD maker with whatever team he lands on.

Really enjoy the banter, take care.


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[scrummymustard]

He’d have been going from the figure on OTC, which, to be fair, is usually spot on.

OTC have it at $10.36M

OTC isn’t wrong.

To franchise tag any other TE in the league, it would be $10.36 because the other TEs 120% of 2016 salary is less than $10.36 million. So the TE tag amount would be the number.

Remember it is the GREATER of either the tag amount or 120% of the prior year salary.

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It is.

It specifically said the FT for Graham was $10.36M, not $15.48M

My apologies.


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[Gio]

I knew that was coming ! Waste of $$ if you don't know how to use him. JG doesn't fit in our offense though. If we had another OC , i'm pretty sure we would keep Jimmy.

 

[Popeyejones]

I’ll try and rebut.

1. You are including a 5 td rookie season that was his 2nd year of football since like middle school. He wasn’t the starter (Shockey was) and played like 25% of the snaps that year. You are also including the 2 td season where he tore his patellar, missed 5 games and was new to the hawks. He had 6 TDs in 2016, but was only targeted 2 times inside the 10 yard line. Clearly not being used correctly.

2. So in 5 out of 6 years that he played fully, he scored at least 9 TDs. I wouldn’t say Cooks had a down year in NE than in NO, 1083/7 is not really a down year when his best in NO was 1138/9. Gronks worst year in TDs when healthy was 8 tds, he’s had 10, 11, 11, 12 & 17 the other years.

Yes NO is a superior offense than here, and stats are “inflated”, but talent always shines. Since Graham came here, their best TEs have had TD seasons of 6 (Watson 2015) 3 & 2 (Fleener in 2016&2017). Scheme matters, but you also have to have the talent to continuously produce.

3. Julius Thomas definitely had his stats helped by having Manning. Scheme and a HOF QB matters, it always will, but I’d point to him being an outlier than a superior talent, as shown by doing absolutely nothing outside of those two years. I believe that Eifert is talented enough to score a high amount of TDs unfortunately he can’t stay healthy in the slightest. He’s missed 22 games in the last two years to really know how he would produce.

I actually do agree with you that TDs are volatile, but not for superior HOF talent IMO.

Gronkowski and Graham are the two best red zone options in the NFL, and they have sustained it for 5+ years. I also believe if Graham doesn’t end up staying, that he will continue to be a TD maker with whatever team he lands on.

Really enjoy the banter, take care.


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Enjoying the banter too. :2thumbs:

1. Guilty as charged on this point. You're right, let's agree to drop that first season (I forgot he was behind Shockey).

2. Good point about declining TD production, although I think that has much more to do with (1) changes to the Saints' offense with Brees' decline as a passer and (2) the emergence of Michael Thomas and (previously) Brandin Cooks as the guys they were scheming open.

We saw this in Graham's first year in Seattle in which the Saints turned a journeyman afterthought like Ben Watson into a near-Graham replacement (Graham in '14 with the Saints had 889 yards and 10 TDs, Watson in '15 with Graham gone had 825 yards and 6 TDs).

3. Point taken that Eifert was derailed by injuries, and point taken that Graham does have a lot of TDs in most years.

My major argument is that the best predictor of TDs is receptions, and Graham's TD rate of 2017 is unsustainable.

For my money he has been a very good player at the one thing he does, but has always been overrated. I also think he's never been a fast twitch guy, and we're now seeing age and injuries catch up with him. He's never been useful at all as an inline blocker, has never been a good route runner, and with his agility deterioration isn't even good at getting separation in man coverage anymore (I'll of course give you boxing out and jump balls).

We're basically talking a guy who at this point is only useful for jump balls and finding the soft spots in zone coverage and still wants to get paid as one of the best TEs in the game. That's a major pass for me if I'm the GM of any team. Maybe it's not a fair comparison, but he reminds me of late-career Randy Moss.

 

[nanomoz]

I think we expected this. You can't just replace a talent like Graham.

Hopefully, the Hawks can nab a great in-line blocking tight end/h-back to help the run game. A Kyle Brady type would be awesome.

 

[Hawkscanner]

The issue with Jimmy Graham coming back (in my mind) is twofold ...

#1 -- $10-15 Million (or whatever the actual contract number would happen to be) is just FAR too much for a 31 year old TE. There are a lot of other areas where that money can be allocated.

Much more importantly though it's about ...

#2 -- IDENTITY. So much of the questions we find ourselves asking about this team come down to questions of IDENTITY. Who are the Seattle Seahawks? What are they all about? At the heart of it, what are their core values? For the Hawks under Pete Carroll, the answer to that question has been all about ...

Hard Nosed In Your Face Defense
Toughness
Nastiness and "being the bully" -- punching other teams in the mouth until they cry uncle and submit.
Running the Football (Marshawn Lynch embodied what this team was all about). It's STILL what they value.

So, which part of that does Jimmy Graham truly support? I mean, he's a very talented pass catcher (that goes without saying). At 6'7" 265 lbs he's admittedly a match-up nightmare ... and Russell Wilson clearly came to rely upon him. There's a chemistry there.

BUT ... when you look at Jimmy Graham, does he really embody that "nastiness"? Is he a bully to opposing defenses? Does he shove them around? Is he a good, hard nosed, nasty run blocker?

The answer to all of that (of course) is No. When push comes to shove, he's a finesse player ... and this Seahawks team has never been about finesse. He's a square peg in a round hole whom we've tried to make fit ever since he's been here. IMO, that missing piece right there (Graham's lack of nastiness, poor run blocking, etc.) has been part of the problem. His lack of blocking ability and nastiness is part of what's ailed this team, in terms of the running game and also blocking for other receivers after the catch.

To me, I'd rather roll with Nick Vannett in there and see what he can do if you give him the reps that Jimmy Graham had. Vannett reminds me a lot of what this team used to have in Zach Miller. THAT'S more of the kind of TE that fits in this offense. And he's going to be a whole heck of a lot less expensive.

I'm firmly of the opinion that Graham is gone for all of the reasons noted above.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

My major argument is that the best predictor of TDs is receptions, and Graham's TD rate of 2017 is unsustainable.

But if you're going to go there, you have to look at Jimmy's 2016, where he picked up 65 receptions (8th in the league at his position) for 923 yards (3rd at his position). So he can play that role, too, and it's still a pretty recent production history.

The biggest arguments against re-signing Jimmy are his age and his half-dozen cringeworthy drops this year. That's why I'd be content with one- or two-year contract.

But Graham's ten touchdowns are a commodity that comes through a mechanism that won't tarnish with age (using his size to box out receivers). And given his production from 2016 and 2017 with no OL, no run game, and Bevell calling the shots, I'd argue there's still a ceiling to be unearthed if any one of those can be fixed. That's why I land on re-signing him.

 

[Schadie001]

I honestly hope they re-sign him. With the players who I believe are not going to be back next year....Cam, Avril, Bennett and possibly Sherman (all just speculation) We are going to have a ton of money to sign Jimmy. All of the nonsense about him disappearing between the 20s makes absolutely zero difference if when we get inside the 20 Jimmy catches a TD. We had in my opinion one of the worst red zone offenses in the league prior to this year. That all changed when Russell and Bevell finally realize that you don't have to throw a jump ball, just let Jimmy run box out. Instant TD.

I predict Jimmy will be back because like it or not the guy was a TD monster this year.