JJ McCarthy Just Declared for the Draft

[SeaWolv]

Yeah, I heard of him, right when they called his name at pick 199 based on the first sentence of your post. Not exactly a replicable phenomenon

Not directed at you but I think you’re missing the point. Sonichawk is basing the be all of his argument on a 3000 yard threshold that my example illustrates is not so.

 

[12forlife]

I watched him play too... I even posted an entire game clip in this thread. He's a longshot to be a longtime NFL QB.

He's not a winner. His team won. Oh yeah, he won in high school? I could give less than a shit.

List of current NFL QBs who didn't have a 3k+ yard year:
Will Levis
Daniel Jones

He's shorter with smaller hands than both of them too. Two trash qbs.

I'm the pompous ass because I have an opinion on him and facts to back it up and not just talking heads jerking themselves off about a guy who hasn't proven anything?

What seawolv refuses to do is acknowledge any point I've made and just posts soft data about some scout liking him. 15 pages of not being able to acknowledge that Michigan won because of their defense.

Dude the only fact your bringing to the table don't hold water. So he didn't throw for 3000 yards, which he was simply 9 yards short, so I would thrive on that stat.
You like stats do ya. 22td - 4ints, 210 yrd rushing 3td, 72% comp, 27-1 record in the Big 10 & playoffs. Yes Michigan leaned on the run, but there were plenty of close games that JJ won for the Wolverines. If you think that 27-1 record means shit well your wrong, JJ has his name all over alot of those wins. To say the kid isn't a winner because he literally has been his whole life is a knock towards the kid then sir you really are an idiot! Since when is winning a bad thing? So when he is leading a NFL team to a 12-5 record and competing for SBowls you still gonna say it dont mean shit? JJ just knows how to win, damn him anyway!

 

[Maelstrom787]

Not directed at you but I think you’re missing the point. Sonichawk is basing the be all of his argument on a 3000 yard threshold that my example illustrates is not so.

Oh. Yeah, that's fair. I wasn't reading closely enough.

 

[SeaWolv]

Wilson had the arm to make that work in college. JJ doesn't

This arm strength narrative has been debunked by several experts including Chris Simms in the video I just posted. Dude threw a ball 61 mph at the combine.

 

[Maelstrom787]

This arm strength narrative has been debunked by several experts including Chris Simms in the video I just posted. Dude threw a ball 61 mph at the combine.

It hasn't been "debunked." You just found a couple of pieces of information that you're trying to use to claim that the guy has an irrefutably strong arm despite him having to wind up like a pitcher to hit throws requiring significant zip.

First, let's go ahead and address the Chris Simms thing. Remember when he called Zach Wilson the best prospect in the draft over Trevor Lawrence?

I do, and I am not going to blindly defer to his authority on draft takes. Sorry.

Now, to address the combine numbers: Combine velocity numbers are not a meaningful measure of real world arm strength, unless you believe guys like Will Grier and Brett Rypien have significantly stronger arms than Patrick Mahomes.

They don't. They don't even have stronger than average arms. They're just throwing at the combine with zero pressure and all the time in the world to wind up their throws.

Arm strength shows up on tape as the ability to relatively effortlessly make throws requiring significant zip without having to alter their mechanics, drop the ball down to their hips and windup, etc.

JJ doesn't have a disqualifyingly flaccid arm, but it really isn't a primary contributor to his upside if you ask me, regardless of Simms saying so (which almost makes it MORE questionable, given his record) or these combine velocity numbers that traditionally say little about real game-action arm strength outside of Josh Allen.

 

[SonicHawk]

I think JJ has a pretty solid arm. His medium accuracy is pretty strong and he can put it where he wants to (in college). Michigan just didn't air it out, but theres enough tape to show his ability in those 15-20 air yards throws with some decent zip. I think he has better touch than your Rattler's of the world -- the tier he probably should be in.

 

[SonicHawk]

Dude the only fact your bringing to the table don't hold water. So he didn't throw for 3000 yards, which he was simply 9 yards short, so I would thrive on that stat.
You like stats do ya. 22td - 4ints, 210 yrd rushing 3td. 27-1 record in the Big 10 & playoffs. Yes Michigan leaned on the run, but there were plenty of close games that JJ won for the Wolverines. If you think that 27-1 record means shit well your wrong, JJ has his name all over alot of those wins. To say the kid isn't a winner because he literally has been his whole life is a knock towards the kid then sir you really are an idiot! Since when is winning a bad thing? So when he is leading a NFL team to a 12-5 record and competing for SBowls you still gonna say it dont mean shit? JJ just knows how to win, damn him anyway!

27-1 record is so meaningless to me. I'm pretty sure Patrick Mahomes had a losing record in college.

You keep telling me there's these big games that JJ won for Michigan but I'm genuinely struggling to identify those. Which one of his 140 yard performances vs ranked teams did he lead his team to victory with them on his back?

Calling me an idiot? You're just saying words. Just ******* words.

 

[SonicHawk]

Yeah, I heard of him, right when they called his name at pick 199 based on the first sentence of your post. Not exactly a replicable phenomenon

He went to the same school too. They are basically the same.

 

[WarHawks]

The arm strength criticism is hilarious. That's what they said about Brady too. He's a kid. He'll get even stronger.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

There are hilarious criticisms of many QB's. Comes with the territory.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The arm strength criticism is hilarious. That's what they said about Brady too. He's a kid. He'll get even stronger.

This is missing the point pretty hard.

The point is that plenty of kids already have NFL arms. I don't see why we should discount that just because you think the kid can grow.

Also, can we just cut it with the Brady shit? Brady has happened once. Exactly once, and it was nearly a quarter of a century ago.

Brady is not an excuse for prospects that we're talking about taking in the first round. He's a throwaway justification for taking fliers on guys in the sixth.

 

[WarHawks]

This is missing the point pretty hard.

The point is that plenty of kids already have NFL arms. I don't see why we should discount that just because you think the kid can grow.

Also, can we just cut it with the Brady shit? Brady has happened once. Exactly once, and it was nearly a quarter of a century ago.

Brady is not an excuse for prospects that we're talking about taking in the first round. He's a throwaway justification for taking fliers on guys in the sixth.

He does have an NFL arm. And yet you want me to dismiss the "Brady shit" while ignoring the fact his arm is fine. You're trying to have it both ways. Tiresome.

 

[SeaWolv]

 

[12forlife]

^Agree ^ it's crazy to me how critical people are of JJ McCarthy? What do people expect from these young prospects? To be honest just his mentality, and toughness, I personally take him over Caleb Williams.

 

[SonicHawk]

^Agree ^ it's crazy to me how critical people are of JJ McCarthy? What do people expect from these young prospects? To be honest just his mentality, and toughness, I personally take him over Caleb Williams.

Instead of talking heads and highlights I encourage all of you to watch more actual game film.



Here's the good:
I think he rolls through progressions well although (like most) he's better on the first read. I think he has a good understanding of where his receivers are supposed to be. I think this shows his high football IQ and his ability to really understand the playbook.
He's got good zip on the ball when he has time. When his legs are under him.
I think he reacts quickly to the open receiver, which means his body is ready to throw when he's moving his head.

Here's where he's going to need to significantly improve to be a quality NFL starter:
He struggles to throw open receivers (a good example of him doing it well is at 12:30, excellent ball placement)
He misses behind the receiver too much.
In general it comes down to anticipation is his weak spot and part of the reason his medium-deep, deep %s are relatively low. It's not that he can't make the throws (one of the first throws in this video is him hitting the receiver in stride)
He doesn't have a ton of arm power when throwing on the run, when he has time to wind up he can zip the shit out of the ball.
He's not a good runner and is at his best when he's tall in the pocket.

 

[12forlife]

Not at all disagreeing. But if the biggest knock is needing to work on ball placement? OK, JJ definitely needs to sit a year or so. If me as a coach the biggest thing I have to work on JJ with is throwing guys open instead of were they are, I'm good with that. Atleast it's not a bag full of bad habits your trying to correct?

 

[12forlife]

27-1 record is so meaningless to me. I'm pretty sure Patrick Mahomes had a losing record in college.

You keep telling me there's these big games that JJ won for Michigan but I'm genuinely struggling to identify those. Which one of his 140 yard performances vs ranked teams did he lead his team to victory with them on his back?

Calling me an idiot? You're just saying words. Just ******* words.

Musta missed the Bama game huh? Beating Ohio St twice don't mean shit either? So if he threw for another measly 9 yards and eclipsed 3,000 yards he would be worthy? Puhleaz! You need to find another prospect with real holes to sink your teeth into. I mean seriously what's next, the kid meditates and tries to visualize the game?

 

[SonicHawk]

Not at all disagreeing. But if the biggest knock is needing to work on ball placement? OK, JJ definitely needs to sit a year or so. If me as a coach the biggest thing I have to work on JJ with is throwing guys open instead of were they are, I'm good with that. Atleast it's not a bag full of bad habits your trying to correct?

Accuracy is a really difficult thing to suddenly get way better at. This is game film vs Purdue, not the Niners. Throwing open receivers is one of those things you have to do consistently in the NFL because you're not going to have so many open receivers.

My main argument against JJ is over-drafting him. You give me him in the late 2nd or 3rd and all of a sudden I'm a bit more excited. You're not betting your franchise on him. Then again, I'm still not blown away by his measurables. He's not exceptional at anything. He's not tall, he doesn't have big hands, he's not extremely fast or agile. He's got a zippy arm but only with a longer windup. You're hoping he turns into Brock Purdy.

That's not a slight at Purdy -- let's look at some Purdy film.



The anticipation on these throws is significantly better, his athleticism is better. His touch is better. Every time I watch Purdy though from college I get flabbergasted at how he was so undervalued.

 

[SonicHawk]

Musta missed the Bama game huh?

Shit, how could i miss that incredible 220 yard performance.



How could I forget a game where everyone was like "god these teams kind of suck on offense".

 

[SeaWolv]

How could I forget a game where everyone was like "god these teams kind of suck on offense".

Why should we care what "everyone" thinks about that game? Sometimes games are defensive struggles not offensive shootouts. Fans like the shootouts but that doesn't mean McCarthy sucks because he only threw 220 yards on Bama defense ranked #17.